CFB Power 5 Previews: Big Ten Win Totals
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! This week we are going to look at EVERY team in the power 5 conferences, and the independents with a few extras thrown in, win total and discussing how I am betting it for each team. Last season I was 3-7 in the Big 10 EASILY the worst of my conference predictions. There was just so much fun wild chaotic energy in the Big 10 last year I didn't even mind losing those because it was so fun to watch each week. This year though? Calling it now this will be my best conference. I will make sure of it. Before we get started be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes so you can follow along each week's #HLSBets public bet sheet. As always you can buy in for the Bonus Bets sheets weekly or buy in for the full season, DM me on Twitter for more information.
Big Ten West
Illinois
2021 Record: 5-7
Win Total O/U: 4.5
Bet: OVER
The flip flopping on Bret Bielema last year was absolutely hilarious. So many people came into the season last year so hyped for Nebraska so that when Illinois beat them to start the season everyone hopped on the hype train and were immediately disappointed. Trust Bielema to build, he is recreating Wisconsin in Champaign and I trust him to get there.. eventually. I expect this team to be bowl eligible this season.
Purdue
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 7.5
Bet: OVER
How much do you believe in Aidan O'Connell? Or was David Bell elevating him? Because if he is a legit 3500+ passer again this season they can be in every single game this year. I think we might find out who was responsible for this defense as they lose Defensive Coordinator Brad Lambert but return a huge chunk of starters and only got deeper on the DL. I am going over betting on this offense to keep them in every game on this weak schedule. I hope they win on that week 1 Thursday night game by 40.
Northwestern
2021 Record: 3-9
Win Total O/U: 4
Bet: UNDER
This team stinks. I am not sure what there is to be hopeful about for this team. I called it last year that the up and down record that people had been trying to say "oh they always bounce back", I am sad to say Fitzgerald has lost his grip on this team and the conference. I am not saying it is hot seat time because let us be honest they will not get anyone better unless they take a risk on a young unproven coach, but it might be in everyone's best interest to move on. I think both Fitzgerald and Northwestern could bounce back with new opportunities, it is sad but just happens sometimes.
Nebraska
2021 Record: 3-9
Win Total O/U: 8
Bet: OVER
This is me going against my gut here. I think looking at their schedule they have 4 potential losses on the schedule, and I am trusting my love for Casey Thompson coming in and finally elevating this okay passing offense to a good one. Could I be very wrong? Absolutely.
Minnesota
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 7.5
Bet: STAY AWAY
I am very curious how Mohamed Ibrahim returns to the field this season. They are replacing nearly their entire OL and DL which can lead to upset or happiness. If the DL gets worked out this defense could be deadly once again this season. Nearly all of their tough games this season are on the road this season and I am not sure if I can trust them to get to 8 wins.
Iowa
2021 Record: 10-4
Win Total O/U: 7.5
Bet: OVER
Turnover luck is a very real thing, last year Iowa was BLESSED. This team returns a huge chunk of their 2021 starters on both sides of the ball, obviously that means a lot more on defense than it does on offense. If this team had the 50th ranked offense last year they potentially made the College Football Playoffs. For comparison they had 99th scoring offense and 121st total yards per game. PITIFUL. Their AVERAGE starting position on offense was past their own 40 and barely cracked the top 100 scoring offenses. I do not think they win 10 games but 8-9 is very believable with the talent they return.
Wisconsin
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
Oh man, DC Jim Leonhard just had the best ranked defense in the Big 10 and top 5 in most categories for the entire country but is in for a HUGE test this season to really prove how great he is after losing nearly everyone on defense aside from a few DL starters. I need Braelon Allen to get much more love this season as one of the best running backs in the country. If this team learned to execute in the redzone this year I see no reason why they could not mess around and go 10-2 or 11-1.
Big Ten East
Indiana
2021 Record: 2-10
Win Total O/U: 4.5
Bet: UNDER
Sorry to the Hoosier fans reading this, I loved watching this team stink last year. The fake good teams of 2019-20 were so annoying because it was obvious they were not actually that good. If this team does not start at least 4-1 the under might as well be a lock.
Maryland
2021 Record: 7-6
Win Total O/U: 5.5
Bet: OVER
If Coach Locksley's Terps are going to take a step forward it is time to do so with Taulia entering his 4th season in college and returns most of their OL. They need their defense to seriously step up this season for them to build and not just be happy with 6 wins.
Rutgers
2021 Record: 5-8
Win Total O/U: 4
Bet: STAY AWAY
This team has to win multiple Big 10 games and beat Boston College week 1 for this over to hit. Do you think they actually do that? Bet the under if anything. Schiano is building but he still needs time.
Penn State
2021 Record: 7-6
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: STAY AWAY
It is past time to move on from James Franklin. You should have fired him and rehired Bill O'Brien this offseason or the one before. You had the 90th ranked scoring offense in the county last year, that is embarrassing. Just pitiful. I do not trust betting this team either way, I feel bad for Penn State fans if they actually beat this over and you are stuck with Franklin for another season.
Michigan State
2021 Record: 11-2
Win Total O/U: 7.5
Bet: OVER
I feel like this line is just wrong? I keep checking multiple sites for lines but the highest I saw was 8.5 on one. This team could very easily be 9-3 this season, 8-4 in my opinion at worst. I believe in what Mel Tucker is building. Thorne to Reed connection this season will be surprisingly very fun.
Michigan
2021 Record: 12-2
Win Total O/U: 9.5
Bet: OVER
I will be ready to be hurt by this bet. I am so ready for Jim Harbaugh to have Michigan be an actual powerhouse year in year out contender, it makes the Big 10 and the College Football Playoff race so much more exciting. This is Michigan's true test, can they reload?
Ohio State
2021 Record: 11-2
Win Total O/U: 11.5
Bet: OVER
Saying this now, if this team is not 12-0 I would start a real conversation about thinking about moving on from Ryan Day. Does that make me an absolute idiot?? Absolutely, but this team has been insanely talented they have to make the playoff or it is a huge disappointment.
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