#HLSBets 2021 Conference Preview : ACC
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment. This is our third in our series going through every single power five conference and discussing every teams Vegas win total prediction, and talking about how we are betting on them. We have already covered the Big 12 and the Big Ten, so click those links to see what we said about those teams.
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ACC - Coastal
Georgia Tech
2020 Record: 3-7
2021 Projected Win Total: 5
Bet: Under
Man oh man are we starting off with a doozy. Getting to five wins is an uphill challenge for this team with this schedule. They have two of the worst back to back weeks schedule gaps out of anyone in the country. 9/18-25 playing @Clemson then vs UNC, and 11/20 @ Notre Dame and vs Georgia. To put bluntly that is four losses no matter how great they play. Something serious will have to happen for that to not be 0-4. So that leaves us with eight possible wins, but one is @Miami, so let us just say seven. Seven possible wins. Do you trust this team to win each of those games? I do not, I am taking the under and will be satisfied if the push hits.
Duke
2020 Record: 2-9
2021 Projected Win Total: 3.5
Bet: Under
This team is rough. But we might know the outcome of this bet before October so I am all over it. Duke's three winnable games all come in September. 9/3 @ Charlotte, 9/10 vs North Carolina A&T and 9/25 vs Kansas. If they lose a single one of these three this under might as well be a lock. The only way this over hits is "big upsets" like 10/9 vs Georgia Tech or 11/6 vs Pitt. I believe we coast the back half of the season.
North Carolina
2020 Record: 8-4
2021 Projected Win Total: 10
Bet: Over
Do you believe in Sam Howell? Losing their two incredible running backs and a couple WRs will be rough. But Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler comes in to fill the void at RB with all five offensive linemen returning. Mack Brown has the championship pedigree to take this team to the next level, and no Clemson on the schedule could lead to running the regular season 12-0. The "worry zone" for this team is October 16th vs Miami and @ Notre Dame on October 9th. To be considered an actual threat to make the playoffs this team needs to properly take care of business here.
Pitt
2020 Record: 6-5
2021 Projected Win Total: 7
Bet: Under
Pitt started 2020 3-0 and then lost every single game that they did not have a bye week leading up to the game. They had three byes. I think this team was much worse than their 6-5 record shows. I am going for the under.
Miami
2020 Record: 8-3
2021 Projected Win Total: 9.5
Bet: Under
9.5 is an amazing number by Vegas. Because the question with this team is not whether they will win 11 or 12 games or even 8, it is if they are winning 9 or 10 games. They will not run the table and I do not see a scenario where they lose more than 3-4 games at most. So where does this team land? I am going under because I think they for sure have 2 losses on the schedule and it only takes on slip up in the back half of the schedule.
Virginia Tech
2020 Record: 5-6
2021 Projected Win Total: 7
Bet: Risky Over
How good is Virginia Tech is a crux for a lot of teams schedule's this season. Are they the team that lost 47-14 to Pitt last season? Or are they the team that hung 38+ points in five of their first six games of 2020? I am changing my bet as I write this into taking the over, because honestly if this team is sound, are 10-11 of their game are winnable games? Maybe?
Virginia
2020 Record: 5-5
2021 Projected Win Total: 6
Bet: Stay Away
I think this team is sneaky good but that does not necessarily translate to wins on the football field. Having one of tougher schedules in the country they are just lucky they dodged Clemson this season or it would have an argument for the toughest. 6 feels too high to say they for sure win more than that.
ACC - Atlantic
NC State
2020 Record: 8-4
2021 Projected Win Total: 6
Bet: Under
This is one I feel like is doomed to fail but I have my reasons. NC State is the definition of scrappy I love watching them. But they seemingly can never get it done. They will put up a strong as hell fight in most of their games but will fall short. But this is a team a ton of people are quietly hyping thinking they might pull out more wins than people expect .
Syracuse
2020 Record: 1-10
2021 Projected Win Total: 3
Bet: Stay Away
I am just not confident enough in this bet either way. I can easily see them losing nine or more games. I almost want to take the under because I am not even sure this team can start this season 3-0 going @ Ohio, vs Rutgers, vs U Albany.
Boston College
2020 Record: 6-5
2021 Projected Win Total: 7
Bet: Under
7 wins feels just about right for this team but I would be shocked to see them win eight games or more. A lot of their toss up games are at home which is a positive but I am not sure if it is enough. This bet might come down to the wire.
Florida State
2020 Record: 3-6
2021 Projected Win Total: 5.5
Bet: Over
I desperately want FSU to return to being a power in CFB. Is McKenzie Milton the QB to help Mike Norvell turn this back into a winning program? I am not sure but this team WILL be in a bowl game I do believe they are at least that good.
Wake Forest
2020 Record: 4-5
2021 Projected Win Total: 6.5
Bet: Under
Wake Forest fell into the category of teams that you never knew what team you would get week to week last season. Just absolutely volatile getting up for big games and looking like garbage versus garbage teams. This being at 6.5 instead of 6 makes me feel better, I am happy to take the under because this team getting 7 or more wins would be a big achievement. If October 30th comes and passes and they don't have 7 wins then they are not reaching 7.
Louisville
2020 Record: 4-7
2021 Projected Win Total: 7
Bet: Under
Seven feels way too high for me, I mean is Lamar back on campus? Is that where he is instead of Ravens training camp? This team feels like they have seven to eight TOTAL winnable games, so I will happily take the under and be okay with the push if it happens. Multiple of their games come down to not how good Louisville is but how much their other team will care and try. Examples of this is their final game of the year against Kentucky, Kentucky could be in the middle of a spiral and not care at all, OR they could be riding high getting ready for bowl season.
Clemson
2020 Record: 10-2
2021 Projected Win Total: 11.5
Bet: Risky Under
This bet ENITERLY comes down to week one versus Georgia in Charlotte, North Carolina. If they win, the over should hit, absolutely no one else on their schedule is an on paper threat. Save besides something crazy happening and Clemson Clemsoning the other 11 games on the schedule are guaranteed wins. Getting Justyn Ross back is huge for DJ Uiagalelei. The more and more I think about his two starts last year the more I believe DJ is about to torch everyone. I just think Georgia might be able to take advantage of the secondary that got torched many times last year with JT Daniels coming out the gate in 2021 setting the tone for the season.
Projected ACC Championship Game
North Carolina vs Clemson Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.
Potential Playoff Contenders
Clemson
North Carolina
Heisman Hopefuls
DJ Uiagalelei +600
Sam Howell +1700
D'Eriq King +2000
Thank you so much for reading! If you liked this please do check out our Big Ten and Big 12 win total season previews, and share this with your friends all across social media! Reminder to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes and hit my dm for more information on signing up for the #HLSBets Bonus Sheet.
