#HLSBets CFB Week 7 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!

Intro - Rundown

    Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! Man oh man am I excited to talk about this just insane weekend of college football we just had so let's skip the pleasantries and get straight into the rundown!

    Let's start this rundown off with people taking care of business. Penn State rolled into Michigan with a fraudulent top 10 ranking like I have talked about for a while now and Michigan just steamrolled them 41-17, don't let the halftime score of 10-14 fool you the Nittany Lions had a couple fluke plays to keep them in it. This was a game I was excited to watch this weekend because we talked about before, Minnesota goes as Ibrahim goes and he was back playing this week but could not do it by himself as he had 129 of their 180 total yards as Illinois won 26-14. Georgia had a get right game against Vandy just beating them down 55-0, not much to say here they looked good everywhere. This Clemson FSU score does not really indicate the type of game this was, as Clemson had a 34-14 lead going into the final 10 minutes of the game, give the Seminoles all the credit in the world for their attempted 4th quarter comeback but Clemson had this game in control as they won 34-28.

    And now for the road upsets everyone is talking about. USC flew over to Utah and they had maybe the most exciting game of the season as they just kept swapping scores back and forth. Only once to start the game did a team score back-to-back in a quarter, USC going up 14-0, the rest of the game they were trading scores all the way down to the wire where Cam Rising ran in a 1-yard TD run AND ran in the 2pt conversion as well to win 43-42. Alabama rolled into Knoxville and just could not get out of their own way; they had 17 penalties and gave up three huge blown coverage TDS (38,60 and 78 yard passes from Hooker to Hyatt) AND missed a potential game winning kick to let Tennessee walk down and kick their own to win 52-49. Same old same old with Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State, no matter how highly ranked they get they will find a way to blow it before they can take that next step and become a title contender. Leading this game 30-16 going into the 4th quarter and then losing in double overtime 40-43 is absolutely ROUGH, I feel so bad for you Poke fans. But TCU came to play and might be taking over the spot as the grittiest team in the country now that Leary and NC State are done. Oh, America's team the Kansas Jayhawks your ride to 5-0 was so fun but your wins might be at an end this season, as you gave up 701 yards to Oklahoma who won 52-42.

    And finally, the mixed bag of almost upsets, and some letdown spots. Auburn never once led in this game against Ole Miss but had their fans hair turning gray as they scored 31 points in the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined but fizzled out in the 4th to lose 34-48. Iowa State easily has to be one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year after people thought they would just keep winning but would now just like to be above .500. A 4th quarter QB TD run put the cyclones up 21-17 but the Texas Longhorns were able to finally drive the field and Xavier Worthy caught the game winning pass from Ewers to win 24-17. NC State I mentioned you earlier, you were one of my favorite teams to watch this season as you showed up with grit each week but without Leary this offense just does not run, and the Syracuse Orange walked away with a 24-9 win to improve to 6-0! Another disappointing run come to an end, James Madison has finally lost their first game since joining the big leagues this season, they just could not stop an explosive 20-0 3rd into the 4th quarter run by Georgia Southern that led to their 38-45 downfall. Mississippi State forgot how to run the ball once again, but Chris Rodriguez certainly did not as he carried the rock 31 times for nearly 200 yards and 2 TDs to help the Kentucky Wildcats win 27-17.

#HLSBets Week 7 Top 25

1. Clemson                   7-0 W 34-28 over Florida State      (LW1)

2. Ohio State                6-0 Bye Week                                    (LW2)

3. Michigan                  7-0 W 41-17 over Penn State          (LW5)

4. Georgia                     7-0 W 55-0 over Vanderbilt             (LW4)

5. Tennessee                6-0 W 52-49 over Alabama             (LW8)

6. Alabama                   6-1 L 49-52 to Tennessee                (LW3)

7. Oregon                      5-1 Bye Week                                     (LW9)

8. TCU                            6-0 W 43-40 over Oklahoma State (LW12)

9. UCLA                         6-0 Bye Week                                    (LW11)

10. Ole Miss                 7-0 W 48-34 over Auburn                 (LW10)

11. Oklahoma State    5-1 L 40-43 to Oklahoma State        (LW7)

12. USC                         6-1 L 42-43 to Utah                            (LW6)

13. Wake Forest           5-1 Bye Week                                       (LW15)

14. Utah                         5-2 W 43-42 over USC                        (LW19)

15. Kentucky                 5-2 W 27-17 over Mississippi State  (LW25)

16. Kansas State          5-1 Bye Week                                       (LW17)

17. Penn State             5-1 L 17-41 to Michigan                      (LW13)

18. Texas                      5-2 W 24-21 over Iowa State             (LW21)

19. Syracuse                6-0 W 24-9 over NC State                   (LW24)

20. North Carolina       6-1 W 38-35 over Duke                      (LWNR)

21. Mississippi State   5-2 L 17-27 to Kentucky                     (LW16)

22. Illinois                      6-1 W 26-14 over Minnesota             (LWNR)

23. James Madison    5-1 L 38-45 to Georgia Southern         (LW18)

24. Oregon State          5-2 W 24-10 over Washington State  (LWNR)

25. Tulane                     6-1 W 45-31 over South Florida         (LWNR)

Dropped Out: #14 NC State, #20 Kansas, #22 Coastal Carolina, #23 BYU

Bets I Should Have Won

Penn State @ Michigan, Total 49 UNDER

Clemson @ FSU, Total 51 UNDER

North Carolina @ Duke, Total 68 UNDER, UNC -7

    First game, still mad about those fluke plays that let Penn State think they had a shot. 41-17 final and those 14 points Penn State had before half just shouldn't be on the board, I will be salty about this for a bit. Clemson had a 34-14 lead going into the final 10 minutes of this game and I thought maybe they would just hold it out but nah, they gave up 14 unanswered points to ruin the under. I really should only blame myself for betting an under in a UNC game this season, their defense is just pitiful and lost the lead in the 4th giving up 2 TDs in 4 minutes, the Drake Maye had to lead the Tarheels down the field to throw a TD pass with 16 SECONDS left to regain the lead to win 38-35. I mean what the heck Tarheels. But shoutout Drake Maye for being the best QB nobody is talking about.

Bets I Am Excited For

UAB 4-2 @ Western Kentucky 4-3

O/U: 58.5 UNDER

Winner: UAB +110, +2.5 

    I know UAB is a very strong Conference USA team and has been for a while but when I saw this line it really intrigued me. Western Kentucky SHOULD be favored more than this, they are the "better" team by a bit. But why is this line like this? Looking at their common game in MTSU there really isn't anything to say oh look at this to, they both controlled the game and won. But looking at their losses there is a very real thing to consider, UAB would be 6-0 right now if not for their FOUR turnovers in the Liberty game, they lost 14-21, and their TWO in the Rice game, they lost 24-28. Six of their 8 turnovers on the season happened in those two games. 

    But how do they match up strength though strength? WKU definitely padded their stats against FIU, but they have the 6th most passing yards per game with 344.4. BUT when you break that down they actually have the 59th best passing attack with only 7.8 yards per attempt, they are volume shooters. Now let's look at UAB, their passing defense is 15th in the nation in yards allowed at 176.2 passing yards per game, but when you break it down, they are actually 4th in yards allowed per attempt at 5.4. Only Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan are better, and they are tied with Georgia. I think Vegas is betting that UAB's pass defense stifles this air raid and comes away with their first road win of the year after screwing themselves out of their other two attempts with turnovers.

Heisman Frontrunners

CJ Stroud -130

Hendon Hooker +200

Caleb Williams +800

Blake Corum +1,000

Bryce Young +1,800

    Okay we know CJ Stroud is the frontrunner by a mile we have talked about it at nauseum. BUT what we really need to discuss is how wide open this race could potentially be. Hendon Hooker beating Alabama throwing 385 yards and 5 TDs (adding 56 yards on the ground), puts him FIRMLY in the Heisman hunt. Now on the other end of the spectrum, Caleb Williams threw for 381 and 5 TDs (57 yards on the ground) but lost on the road to Utah ending their 12-0 hopes. BUT in reality, Caleb Williams plays for USC and as long as they keep winning from here and he continues to put up numbers he will very much still be in the running. 

    Now let's talk about the last two, I generally only put 3 players on this list but we are in a weird situation here. Blake Corum had an incredible game against Penn State and is the bell cow of this Michigan offense... but he didn't even have the best day for Michigan running backs, Donovan Edwards had 12 less carries with 7 more yards and they both had 2 TDs. Michigan has a HUGE voting block bias (see Hutch last season for reference), but this is Donovan Edwards second game of the season with 10+ carries with a season and career high of 16 carries. IF Michigan decides to ride his hot hand and get continues to get more carries then he will start hurting Corum's chances. Now Bryce Young.. might have moved UP in his actual chances of repeating with the loss?? Young threw for 455 and 2 TDs and was just DRAGGING that Alabama offense by himself; he had the best performance on the field Saturday night and now has himself set up for a come from behind win. If Tennessee beats Georgia and Bryce gets a rematch to win... that Heisman story just writes itself, his Heisman moment can happen in Atlanta in the SEC Championship.

Sell Stock In

NC State

Kansas

Mississippi State

    I talked about it earlier but without Devin Leary this Wolfpack offense really struggles to move the ball. Thier remaining schedule has some very winnable games (VT, BC, @Louisville) but has two for sure losses in WF and @ UNC. I don't think it would be too crazy of an idea that they could lose 3-4 more times.

   I think Kansas might kill for that outlook as they genuinely could lose their final 5 games. Starting 5-0 and then ending 0-7 would be seriously rough for the fanbase. I am hoping they can steal one more game this season to make bowl eligibility, but their remaining schedule is @Baylor, Oklahoma St, @ Texas Tech, Texas and @ Kansas St.

    Mississippi State is sitting at 5-2 right now and only have one more for sure win left on the schedule in ETSU. They travel to Tuscaloosa this weekend to be the drum Alabama beats on after getting upset last week, then they have Auburn traveling to them, and I really would hope they win this game but with how volatile the Bulldogs are I am not sure. Then they have Georgia coming in the next week for what's sure to be an ugly matchup as they can just tee off on Will Rodgers throwing, (ETSU game), then end the season on the road in the Egg Bowl versus Ole Miss and there is no telling what happens in that game. After starting 5-1, there is a very real shot this team ends 1-5 which is scary. 

Buy Stock In

TCU

Alabama

    How real is this TCU team?? They are now 6-0 with three ranked wins (Oklahoma, @Kansas, Oklahoma St) and have at least two more ranked games on their schedule (Kansas St and @ Texas). This weekend's matchup against Kansas State could prove disastrous for the conference, as the Horned Frogs are the last unbeaten team in the Big 12. But how worried should they be? Their fans should be nervous as hell because winning this game puts them in position to have a serious playoff argument, and their trip to Austin could be a determining factor before the Big 12 title game. Or maybe they are in the wrong section?

    Is it time to buy "low" on Alabama? Or are they in the wrong section too? We talked about it in the rundown how this Alabama team just absolutely screwed themselves out of winning that Tennessee game on the road. 17 penalties, a potential game winning field goal missed, and three huge blown coverages for easy scores. But the 17 penalties really tell more about this team than anything. Alabama has committed 66 penalties this season, which is WORST in the nation, giving opponents an average of 79.9 free yards per game. 9.4 penalties per game, through seven games means this 17 penalty outburst is not some fluke. This team is undisciplined. But is there a head coach in the country you'd trust more to turn that around than Nick Saban? I don't think so. Alabama is in complete control of their destiny this season even with the loss this past weekend. Miss State, @LSU, @Ole Miss, Austin Peay and Auburn is the remainder of their schedule and they should be heavily favored in every game. Assuming they win out Alabama has a shot at still earning a playoff birth by winning the SEC Championship game. A game that could be a rematch against Tennessee, and you just know they are dying for that opportunity. 

Outro - Games I Am Excited For

Syracuse @ Clemson 11am ABC

Ole Miss @ LSU 2:30pm CBS

UCLA @ Oregon 2:30pm Fox

Texas @ Oklahoma State 2:30pm ABC

Minnesota @ Penn State 6:30pm ABC

Kansas State @ TCU 7pm FS1

    Man we really are in the middle of a scorching stretch for college football, over the past few weeks going 6, 7 and now 7 more ranked matchups is just wild. I am so excited. Be sure to follow me on twitter @HaroldLStokes for this week's public #HLSBets sheet as weel as there you can direct message me for more information on how to join the bonus sheet that includes 4+ additional games and full breakdowns.