#HLSBets CFB Week 6 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!
Intro - Rundown
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! This year of college football just keeps getting weirder and weirder and more and more exciting. This weekend we saw four more AP top 25 teams get upset and just one wild game after another. Before we get into the rundown, be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes where I post the weekly free #HLSBets Public Sheet, and you can dm me there for more info on joining the Bonus Sheet that comes with additional games and breakdowns. On to the rundown!
The weekend started off (for #HLSBets at least) with the ugliest game of football I have seen in YEARS on Friday night when Colorado State ended their winless season beating Nevada 17-14, more on this game later. Michigan improved to 6-0 with their dominating performance beating Indiana 31-10. Speaking of dominating performances, Tennessee absolutely beatdown on LSU in a 40-13 win in Death Valley. In one of the most exciting, but disappointing for me, game of the weekend TCU showed up to Kansas in the most surprising undefeated matchup of the season. This game had it all, from a 42 combined point quarter to a backup QB coming in and almost dragging his team to a W. Mississippi State had themselves a little bit of a hog roast as they torched Arkansas for almost 600 yards to win 40-17.
Georgia quietly got back on track this week stomping Auburn 42-10 at home...well I mean they scored 21 points in the 4th so it is not like they were just consistently scoring. Speaking of, Ole Miss "beat up" on Vanderbilt 52-28, but in reality they were down 17-20 at halftime but exploded for 35 second half points. Oklahoma State was down 17-21 at the start of the 2nd quarter to Texas Tech and didn't regain the lead until a FG to close out the third quarter. The Cowboys scored again in the 4th to have the final be 41-31. USC fell down to Wazzu 14-10 a few minutes into the 2nd quarter but then went on to score 20 unanswered points to put Washington State away 30-14.
CJ Stroud threw SIX touchdowns in a 21/26 performance demolishing the Spartan defense as Ohio State ran away scoring all 49 of their points before the 4th quarter even started. Buckeyes beat Michigan State 49-20. Speaking of scoring all 49 points before the 4th, Oregon did the exact same impressively racking up 580 yards on Arizona, including 300+ on the ground winning 49-22. Wake Forest was pitching a shut out 38-0 on Army up until the 4th, final 45-10. We need to have a real talk about how good Texas is with Quinn Ewers at the helm as they just ran it up on Oklahoma 49-0. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Clemson's defense just locked down Boston College in a strong 31-6 victory allowing only 34 rushing yards on 30 tries.
In a game without Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young, where Alabama turned the ball over 4 times, their defense just BARELY saved them at the buzzer to beat Texas A&M 24-20. NC State really struggled against a lesser team in FSU as they gave up the most points they have all season before halftime (17), but even as starting QB Devin Leary went down the team rallied to win 19-17. I love watching this Wolfpack team, they are the definition of grit. Kansas State STRUGGLED to find the endzone in just a really rough game to watch, as they barely scratched by a conflicted Iowa State team 10-9. In a game that Cincy gave up 17 first half points to USF, the Bearcats just kept plugging away one TD per quarter to win 28-24.
And now for the biggest losers/winners section... Utah rolled into the worst fanbases stadium and just could not stop UCLA from scoring, no matter how hard the Utes tried to rally DTR and Charbonnet would just keep answering. UCLA won 42-32. Washington is in serious trouble as they dropped their second straight game, and the wheels might start to fall off as they allowed Arizona State to score the most points they have all season in their 45-38 upset of the Huskies. Speaking of a team whose wheels might be falling off, Kentucky without Will Levis just could not find a way to score enough to keep up with South Carolina, a team who SNEAKY has a very impressive offense and we might have written off way too soon, as the Gamecocks win 24-14. Notre Dame scored 22 unanswered points in the 2nd/3rd quarters of their game against BYU, and it was just too much for the Cougars to overcome as the Irish win 28-20. And now to unveil this week's Top 25!
#HLSBets Week 6 Top 25
1. Clemson 6-0 W 31-3 over Boston College (LW1)
2. Ohio State 6-0 W 49-20 over Michigan State (LW3)
3. Alabama 6-0 W 24-20 over Texas A&M (LW2)
4. Georgia 6-0 W 42-10 over Auburn (LW4)
5. Michigan 6-0 W 31-10 over Indiana (LW5)
6. USC 6-0 W 30-14 over Washington State (LW6)
7. Oklahoma State 5-0 W 41-31 over Texas Tech (LW7)
8. Tennessee 5-0 W 40-13 over LSU (LW9)
9. Oregon 5-1 W 49-22 over Arizona (LW10)
10. Ole Miss 6-0 W 52-28 over Vanderbilt (LW11)
11. UCLA 6-0 W 42-32 over Utah (LW20)
12. TCU 5-0 W 38-31 over Kansas (LW16)
13. Penn State 5-0 Bye Week (LW14)
14. NC State 5-1 W 19-17 over FSU (LW12)
15. Wake Forest 5-1 W 45-10 over Army (LW18)
16. Mississippi State 5-1 W 40-17 over Arkansas (LW19)
17. Kansas State 5-1 W 10-9 over Iowa State (LW17)
18. James Madison 5-0 W 42-20 over Arkansas State (LW21)
19.Utah 4-2 L 42-32 to UCLA (LW8)
20. Kansas 5-1 L 31-38 to TCU (LW22)
21. Texas 4-2 W 49-0 over Oklahoma (LWNR)
22. Coastal Carolina 6-0 W 28-21 over UL Monroe (LW23)
23. BYU 4-2 L 20-28 to Notre Dame (LW13)
24. Syracuse 5-0 Bye Week (LW24)
25. Kentucky 4-2 L 14-24 to South Carolina (LW15)
Dropped Out: #25 Maryland
Bets I Should Have Won
(Written in a fury after staying up to watch this pitiful game)
Absolutely what in the heck was that Nevada? That was the most pitiful offensive play calling I have ever seen. Their defense didn't deserve that crap. OH WAIT, yes they absolutely did. Colorado State completed ELEVEN passes, NINE went to one player, Tory Horton. They couldn't stop one WR that really might be the most average college WR. Just infuriating play calling by the Nevade OC the entire game but insanely poor late in the 4th. Late in the 4th after finally tying the game up Nevada gets the ball back and instead of feeding your best player Toa Taua to run the last 6 minutes off the clock, this idiot throws the ball 9 out of their 10 plays they got before punting. What in the world. Get the ball in your best players hands. Colorado State went 1-11 on 3rd down, with 78 passing yards, scored 3 points on offense, had FOURTEEN PENALTIES. A pick 6 and fumble recovery for a score are the only reason this game was close. I am so mad about this.
Bets I Am Excited For
Well you just read my rant about last weeks BIAEF, we started 6-0 and now this bet is 6-3 after its 3rd week. Here is the game I think should help us get right back on track!
Baylor (3-2) @ West Virginia (2-3) THURSDAY 10/13 6pm FS1
O/U: 55 UNDER
Winner: Baylor -170, +3.5
Weather: Start at 60 but drops to mid 50s, 0-1% chance of rain
Last year Baylor won at home 45-20, after the Mountaineers won in 2020 27-21. Random stat that I found just looking through comparing these teams is how West Virginia is sneaky a very good team on offense on 3rd down (15th) while being kind of really bad defensively at 103rd, to compare Baylor is 47th and 49th respectively. In so many other stats they are just so weirdly similar. WVU is very good at once they reach the redzone they will score, they have scored on 25 of their 27 trips. Both of these teams are coming off a bye and a painful loss. This is a must win game for both teams and I am sure they are very aware how difficult each team's remaining schedules are. There has only been ONE road win in the 10-game history between these teams and that was WVU's 38-36 2017 win in Waco, but I think Baylor evens that score this year.
Heisman Frontrunners
CJ Stroud -150
Hendon Hooker +700
Caleb Williams +900
We have talked and talked about CJ Stroud has this locked up barring some injury or some sudden collapse and these odds are just going to get worse and worse so if you want to bet on him the longer you wait the worse it will get. His odds have just gotten easier with Bryce Young missing time, and if he continues to miss Young, whose odds are already worsened by the difficulty of repeating, might as well be removed from the odds entirely.
Well look at that, Hendon Hooker has climbed all the way up to 2nd place after we talked about him weeks ago. Think through the bet though before placing it, it might entirely hinge upon this weekend's game against Alabama. We all know that this award goes not to the actual best player, or who put up the best numbers on the season, but the best player on a top tier team. Therefore, before you place the bet do you believe Tennessee can beat Alabama this weekend? And then Georgia on November 5th? RG3, Johnny Manziel and Lamar Jackson are the only 3 Heisman winners this century to win with 2 or more losses. Do you think he ends up with THAT type of season?
Well, we talked about it last week and here is Caleb Williams first big matchup that will have the eyes of the nation on the game, USC @ Utah. If he has a huge game here is odds will leap up again. If you are sold out on wanting to wait on Stroud's odds somehow raising it will be down to Caleb Williams and USC continuing to win (specifically if they beat an undefeated UCLA on 11/19).
Sell Stock In
LSU Fans
Kentucky/Arkansas/Washington
I mean what was that nonsense LSU fans? You have a top 25 matchup with a top 10 team, and you can't even show up? The absolute nonsense excuses I saw about it being an 11am kickoff is pathetic, everyone has 11am games. The LSU Tiger fanbase just took a serious hit in the publics eye for that pitiful showing.
After starting 4-0 and climbing all the way to #15 in the country Washington has now dropped two straight to UCLA and Arizona State. The remaining games on their schedule are, Arizona, @ Cal, Oregon State, @ Oregon, Colorado, @ Washington State. They might be favored in THREE of those games. Halfway through their schedule they realistically could end the season barely at .500 going 6-6. If they do not win their next two games they could end up even worse.
Arkansas stumbled to 3-0 and was vastly overrated as they climbed to #10 and we talked about on here how they might lose their next four games. They have now lost three straight, and might lose the next two games as well. @ BYU, @ Auburn, Liberty, LSU, Ole Miss, @ Missouri... all six of those games are very loseable. We might be having Razorback fans calling for Sam Pittman's head in November.
The Kentucky Wildcats desperately need Will Levis to get healthy very quickly and actually play to the outrageous expectations certain "experts" have for him for some reason. The Wildcats started 4-0 and rose to #7, but fumbled their top 15 matchup against Ole Miss and lost to the Gamecocks without Will Levis. They now have a stretch of, Mississippi State, @ Tennessee, @ Missouri, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and then Louisville. If they have Will Levis I only think two are for sure losses.. but if he continues to sit out, especially this week, they will be favored in less than half of these games.
Buy Stock In
South Carolina??
I am not wanting to overrate the Gamecocks right now they still could lose a ton more games, but more so just give them some praise for what they have done. This is a team that after week three people were ready to completely bury but have gotten themselves off the map with 3 straight wins. Spencer Rattler by no means has been a world beater this year but he has improved over this last stretch making better decisions and his completion % shows it after going, 62.2, 61.5, 52, 73.9, 77.8 and 73.7. This has obviously been helped by the OL giving up fewer sacks as well, in the first two games they gave up 9, but have only given up 3 since. Maybe Beamer Ball is back?
Outro - Games I am Excited For
Penn State @ Michigan 11am Fox
Alabama @ Tennessee 2:30pm CBS
Oklahoma State @ TCU 2:30 ABC
NC State @ Syracuse 2:30 ACCN
Mississippi State @ Kentucky 6:30pm SEC Network
USC @ Utah 7pm Fox
Very briefly I am pettily excited for Michigan to have a shot at exposing Penn State as a fraudulent top 10 team. Alabama Tennessee is obviously THE game of the weekend but in a series that the Crimson Tide has won 15 straight I am not sure if some old wounds don't open for Tennessee. Oklahoma State @ TCU is an incredible resume game for the Cowboys if they want to be taken seriously in the playoff race. We have been given very little information on the seriousness of NC State QB Devin Leary's shoulder injury, but I think he will probably sit this game out against Syracuse so I am very interested to see how this gritty team rallies. Is Will Levis going to play this week? Or will Will Rodgers go solo in their QB duel and throw all over the Kentucky defense? USC @ Utah was going to be THE game of the week until Utah was upset last week by UCLA, I am curious if the Utes rally or crumble.
Thank you so much for reading! Once again please be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes
