#HLSBets CFB Week 3 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!
Intro - Rundown
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! I am excited to dive into what we all just saw over this great weekend of football but first be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes where I post each weekend's free #HLSBets Public Sheet (it went 8-4 this weekend) as well as there you can message me about joining the Bonus Sheet that comes with even more games with full breakdowns on each game! Let us get into this weekend's rundown!
I understand some of us had high hopes for South Carolina this season, but Georgia rolled in and reminded them what dominance looks like stomping out any hope they had still held onto 48-7. Alabama scored about 4 times in less than 7 minutes in the first quarter in all three phases of the game and just kept pounding until time was called, 63-7 win over Louisiana Monroe. Aside from literally three big plays Ohio State could do no wrong hanging 77 demoralizing points on Toledo winning 77-21. Michigan came into the season using their preseason cupcake games to try out a QB competition and apparently it isn't working as they had SEVEN people throw the ball in their fight down to the wire with their strongest opponent yet UConn 59-0. Clemson's offense continues to "struggle" and find its footing but if their defense continues to impress, Louisiana Tech scored two TDs late to make to final look better 48-20.
Man, are you telling me Nebraska firing Scott Frost WASN'T enough to become a team capable of beating Oklahoma?? Shocking. Oklahoma is the real deal this season and we all need to pay attention, they handedly won 49-14. It is hilarious just keeping up with the people hanging onto Fresno State being some great team this year so watching USC prove once again that this offense might be unstoppable was nice for me, their defense still has issues to fix for sure, but they won the game 45-17. Oklahoma State just outclasses Arkansas-Pine Bluff 63-7, fun story of the game is backup QB Mike Gundy got significant playing time and got to sling it around. Will Levis just kept stacking up passing yards, but Kentucky struggled to add it up to tons of points as they just squeak by the gritty Youngstown State 31-0. Okay we need to have a serious conversation about Arkansas, I am not in the meeting rooms so obviously I do not know the actual answer, but I am really curious if this team is just so full of themselves thinking they are great already and just are playing lackadaisical on Saturday's or are they just NOT as good as we thought they were. After starting 3-0 this team might be 3-4 going into the weekend of Halloween, but this weekend they held on to win 38-27 over Missouri State.
I mean Vegas was screaming it was a trap game for Michigan State and they were correct, a late comeback couldn't save them as they fall to Washington 28-39. I feel great about never dropping Oregon that far, so many people wrote this team off after week 1. BYU traveled up to the beautiful Autzen Stadium and just couldn't keep up with the Ducks losing 20-41. Does it even count as an offense coming alive with a new QB in a win if they only gain 264 yards? Miami should have won this but were just suffocated by the Aggie defense in the redzone and missed two field goals. Texas A&M outlasted them 17-9. Utah is going to slowly just keep stacking wins until their redemption chance on 10/15 but this weekend Cam Rising led them to a 35-7 win over San Diego State.
Tennessee QB Hedon Hooker for Heisman? The Vols take Akron's lunch money 63-6. NC State survives again this time being led by their defense in a 27-14 win over Texas Tech. Uh I think Baylor just found their offense as they fed RB Richard Reese 20 touches for 173 yards and 3 TDS in their 42-7 win over Texas State. Florida is making me sad. We were rooting for you, you had your big upset get crushed and now it's time to rebound, well they just barely survived USF 31-28 at home. Speaking of just barely surviving, Wake Forest stopped Liberty at the goal line on their 2pt attempt to win 37-36.
Ole Miss did a great stop of just absolutely force feeding their rushing attack, they know they need it to be in a groove and this GT DL was actually a perfect test and they passed winning 42-0. Bijian Robinson shouldered the load and carried this Texas team through their trap game winning 41-20 over UTSA. In the battle of head coaches that deserve to be fired Penn State won 41-12 over Auburn but Harsin won the bad coach off with his terrible excuses as to why their best player Tank Bigsby only ran the ball 9 times, saying they fell behind and had to throw the ball (the score was 14-6 at half). That was a lot, on to the updated #HLSBets Top 25!
#HLSBets Week 3 Top 25
1. Georgia W 48-7 over South Carolina (LW1)
2. Alabama W 63-7 over Louisiana Monroe (LW2)
3. Ohio State W 77-21 over Toledo (LW3)
4. Clemson W48-20 over Louisiana Tech (LW4)
5. Michigan W 59-0 over UConn (LW5)
6. Oklahoma W 49-14 over Nebraska (LW6)
7. USC W 45-17 over Fresno State (LW9)
8. Utah W 35-7 over San Diego State (LW11)
9. Kentucky W 31-0 over Youngstown State (LW13)
10. Oregon W 41-20 over BYU (LW14)
11. NC State W 27-14 over Texas Tech (LW10)
12. Oklahoma State W 63-7 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff (LW15)
13. Tennessee W 63-6 over Akron (LW16)
14. Arkansas W 38-27 over Missouri State (LW12)
15. App State W 32-28 over Troy (LW18)
16. BYU L 20-41 to Oregon (LW8)
17. Texas A&M W 17-9 over Miami (LW21)
18. Michigan State L 28-39 to Washington (LW7)
19. Florida W 31-28 over South Florida (LW19)
20. Texas W 41-20 over UTSA (LW20)
21. Baylor W 42-7 over Texas State (LW22)
22. Ole Miss W 42-0 over Georgia Tech (LW25)
23. Penn State W 41-12 over Auburn (LWNR)
24. Washington W 39-28 over Michigan State (LWNR)
25. Wake Forest W 37-36 over Liberty (LW23)
Fell Out: Miami (LW17), Mississippi State (LW24)
Bets I Should Have Won
OVER 44.5, Miami +180 and Miami +6 Final: Texas A&M 17 - Miami 9
I am so salty about this game still. Miami proved they have the better offense gaining nearly 400 yards of offense, but just pitiful red zone offense mixed with a hard nose defense is crushing. If either of the missed field goals hit so does the spread. This was just hurtful all alround.
UNDER 57, Michigan State +145 and Michigan State +3.5 Final: Washington 39 - Michigan State 28
I knew this was a trap game, everyone did, it was the first line of the Bonus Sheet breakdown of the game. But I had ZERO idea this Spartan defense was this bad, just HOW do you give up nearly 400 yards and 4 TDs to Michael Penix jr., we know he is not that good. Dear lord. Peyton Thorne actually had a really solid game throwing 323 3 TDs and 1 INT. This Spartan OL and RBs just had nothing for this Washington front 7, they ran 29 times for 42 yards and 1 TDs. 42 yards on 29 carries. That is 1.4 yards per carry. But guess what? It gets worse because one of the runs was a 21 yard scramble by Thorne, so in reality it was 28 carries for 21 yards. 0.75 yards per carry. I was begging them to stop running the ball.
Bets I Am Excited For
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State Thursday 22nd, 6:30pm ESPNU
Total: 63.5 OVER
Winner: Coastal Carolina -145, -2.5
Weather: start low 80s and slowly drop, 0% chance of rain (as of 9/19)
I have been debating making this section into our weekly lets talk about the Thursday/Friday games, because I am never going to put those games on the #HLSBets Public Sheet. It could also work as a preview for the Bonus Sheet. Let me know what you think. These games are usually some of the most exciting ones of the season watching MACtion and the Fun Belt in these games is always fun. This week's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal and Georgia St is a real test for the Fighting Demon Chickens as they look to redeem their 40-42 loss from last season, and the Panthers are still trying to get their first win of the season. The over being the safest part of this bet has me nervous but trusting it as each give up 27 (CCU) and 37.3 (GAST) points on average in their first three games, also scoring 35.7 (CCU) and 27.7 (GAST). Both defenses have been torched each game giving up about 400 yards a piece. This could be an exciting score fest, and I am rolling with the better QB in Grayson McCall.
This BIAEF is one I do not believe is going to happen at all...but how fun would it be for it to even come close. Kansas +4,000 to make the Big 12 Championship game. I have been riding this team in the right spots and I just want to have just that little bit extra investment into this team. Jayhawk nation, lets ride.
Heisman Frontrunners
CJ Stroud +225
Caleb Williams +300
Bryce Young +500
Stetson Bennett +600
CJ Stroud has already racked up 941 and 11 TDs through the air on 72.9% passing with 0 interceptions. With none of the many elite talent around him separating themselves (keep an eye on #18) CJ is holding strong as the favorite across the country.
Caleb Williams has passed Bryce Young for 2nd place after being +900 two weeks ago, and it is well deserved. The USC offense runs smooth just stacking points led by Williams 874 and 8 TDs through the air on 74.4% passing with 0 interceptions and adds another 73 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Meanwhile Alabama's offense while still very talented has failed to find a groove but is being dragged along by Bryce's 644 and 9 TDs through the air though he does have 2 INTs on his 68.2% passing, but he adds 144 yards and 2 TDs on the ground.
Man, Stetson's odds are skyrocketing after being +1,200 last week, hope you threw some on like I did. He is leading this unstoppable force with 952 and 5 TDs through the air on 73.9% passing with 0 INTs and he adds 31 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. He is about to have ample time to rack up even more stats on this next stretch of softer games so I imagine these odds will continue to get worse. BUT this team is very well likely to get up 3 scores and just run the clock out of nearly every game, which makes him a very risky horse to ride with so have expectations tempered.
Sell Stock In
Arkansas
UCLA
Washington
I already talked about it in the rundown but Arkansas has yet to show up and play like a team deserving of the top 10 ranking they now have. After surviving their first 3 games they now face a stretch of @Texas A&M, Alabama, @Miss State, @BYU before finally having a bye week. It is a very real possibility for them to go 0-4 or 1-3 during this stretch. They for sure are not going 4-0 but is 3-1 even on the table? I am selling my stock in them.
It THANKFULLY hasn't happened yet this season, but I have been that loud annoying voice that has been trashing DTR and UCLA as they have been overrated every single year. But if I am right and (assuming they survive Colorado) "upset" 4-0 Washington you know every talking head will be pumping this potential 5-0 team ahead of their hosting of Utah on 10/8. Count this as a preemptive sell, I am shorting them.
Trap game for trap game. The 3-0 Washington Huskies just "shocked the world" upsetting Michigan State. They are PRIME to lost one of their next few games (probably UCLA), just don't hop to far on the bandwagon right now for Washington. Take it easy.
Buy Stock In
Oregon
Miami - buying low
Georgia
Oregon has a chance to walk through their next 6 games (@Wash St, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, @CAL, @Colorado) and if coach Dan Lanning wants to learn just ONE lesson from his Oregon predecessors it is these games are the most dangerous stretch of the season. Oregon has slipped up and lost one of their "easy" games so so so many times. I have been still in on this team and will continue to trust them to survive this stretch.
Miami is in the best spot right now. This was never a title contender season but a growth with a new head coach, and now Mario Cristobal has his fuel for the flame as they go into a tune up game against MTSU before North Carolina takes the trip down to Coral Gables kicking off their ACC games. I think this team is going to use this loss and the driving for the rest of the season.
Listen I don't think we all properly understand how Georgia is THAT far ahead of everyone right now. No one is close to this level of play. But the real question that is in the back of every Georgia fan's brain right now, it is the same question they have had since hoisting that trophy. Will it last? We all know they will win these next 4 games by probably a combined 200 points. But what happens in that back half? What happens if they have to play Alabama again in the SEC championship game? Just hold strong, this team is sound across the board. I trust Kirby Smart and his staff to hold this thing together.
Outro - Games I'm Looking Forward To
Maryland @ Michigan 11am Fox
Clemson @ Wake Forest 11am ABC
Baylor @ Iowa State 11am ESPN2
Florida @ Tennessee 2:30 CBS
James Madison @ App State 2:30pm ESPN+
Arkansas @ Texas A&M 6pm ESPN
I just had to stop myself from adding about 10 more games. This weekend looks to be our first truly GREAT weekend of matchups. USC @ Oregon St is one I can't wait to watch because the Beavers are the Trojans first test of the season. Stanford @ Washington has upset written all over it. Wisconsin @ Ohio St is a big matchup. I have to stop adding more, ND @ UNC Texas @ Texas Tech, okay I am done. Ending this now, this week's slate looks so incredible, and I love the board, be sure to be following me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes so you do not miss out on the free #HLSBets Public Sheet, and you can dm for more info on joining the Bonus Sheet.
