#HLSBets CFB Week 9 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment I hope you enjoyed the hectic weekend of football a lot more than I did. I had my first true terrible losing betting weekend since started publicly gambling a few years ago. To laugh at me or hop on this follow up heater you can follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes. There will be a comeback this week but more on that in the "Bets I Should Have Won" section down below. I wanted to let you know I am pushing back this blog to the day after the CFP rankings come out each week so I can discuss them in the new CFP ranking reaction section. Today we are going to do a rundown of this weekends main games, release #HLSBets Week 9 Top 25 and then compare it to the new College Football Playoff rankings, as well as discussing the Heisman race and more! On to the rundown!
This week kicked off with Coastal Carolina lacklusterly beating Troy 35-28 on Thursday night. Do not be mistaken by the final score of 31-12 Cincinnati STRUGGLED with now 1-7 Tulane. Cincy fans that have been mad at me on twitter we will not respect your team as long as they continue to do embarassing things like this. Why does the Big Ten constantly put their best games at the 11am/noon slot? Michigan @ Michigan State was the game of the week and was over before the afternoon games got rolling. Michigan was in full control until the end of the third quarter but the signs of slippage were there, they had absolutely nothing for Kenneth Walker III and he just finally took over in the fourth. Missed calls and ref complaining aside both these teams hopes are still alive, State just took the W 37-33 over Michigan.
Speaking of the Big Ten's terrible scheduling Iowa traveled to Madison for another 11am kickoff and were inept on offense, they had 156 total offensive yards and lost three fumbles. Wisconsin has life winning 27-7. Bijan Robinson was just completely shut down by Baylor ending any Heisman hopes left as he had 43 yards on 17 carries. It is a good thing that missed field goal didn't come back to bite Baylor as they won 31-24. Pittsburgh was absolutely robbed at home by the refs against Miami, yes that was obviously a safety. Pickett's Heisman hopes died with his two VERY errant passes out of 55 that ended in interceptions, his 519 yards and 3 TDs just was not enough. Miami 38-34. Listen am just happy we I was right about Iowa State not actually being good but not having much to back it up. Is West Virginia upset hunting? Watch out Oklahoma State, they just took down Iowa State 38-31. How much do we have to say about the worlds largest cocktail party? Georgia showed up and embarrassed Florida 34-7 meanwhile looking very human on offense, they need JT Daniels to get back to full health.
Man oh man I am proud(?) of you Oklahoma you got to pull your QB for a good reason for the first time this season (no I am not counting WCU). We can not say Oregon scrapped by this weekend they dominated Colorado 52-29, but it was 45-14 going into the fourth giving up two late TDs not the best look. Listen we are going to talk about Wake Forest more below but we might have a lot of questions if they keep winning, this time 45-7 over Duke. In the third best game of the weekend Ole Miss headed down to Auburn Alabama out on the plains and just could not get it done. Listen I love the going for it on fourth and we would not be having this conversation if it worked, but a lot of this game can be chalked up to not taking the points when you could. Auburn won 31-20. Clock is striking Midnight for Kentucky now losing two straight and have a tough game against Tennessee that could make it three this weekend. Listen, Will Rodgers of Mississippi State threw 36/39 which is a SEC record for completion % at 92.3, but I really need State fans to calm down dude is not doing that every week. State 31-17.
Oklahoma State took care of business hosting Kansas and whooping them 55-3, at least one of the Oklahoma's knows how to do that still. Down goes the other unbeaten in the AAC, SMU lost to Houston 37-44 but man this game was a big play spectacular. I want to give all respect possible to this Penn State team, without the turnovers you would have beaten Ohio State even though you could not run the ball to save your season I mean life. 5-3 does not show how good this team is. Man that 91 yard run might haunt the twelve Tarheel fans that have not moved on to basketball season. UNC was in this game but just could not hang on, Notre Dame 44-34. Oh dear lord everyone might be talking about the wrong RB performance this weekend, BYU RB Tyler Allgeier just ran for 266 and FIVE TDS. Virginia just could not keep up even though Armstrong did great, BYU 66-49. And for the final game of the rundown the least important and least impactful one, Fresno State beat 7-0 San Diego State University 30-20.. So why were they both ranked by the Playoff Committee?
#HLSBets Week 9 Top 25
1. Georgia 8-0 (LW1)
2. Alabama 7-1 (LW4)
3. Ohio State 7-1 (LW2)
4. Oregon 7-1 (LW5)
5. Michigan State 8-0 (LW8)
6. Oklahoma 9-0 (LW7)
7. Cincinnati 8-0 (LW3)
8. Wake Forest 8-0 (LW10)
9. Notre Dame 7-1 (LW12)
10. Michigan 7-1 (LW6)
11. Oklahoma State 7-1 (LW16)
12. Baylor 7-1 (LW17)
13. Texas A&M 6-2 (LW18)
14. Auburn 6-2 (LW21)
15. Ole Miss 6-2 (LW9)
16. Coastal Carolina 7-1 (LW22)
17. NC State 6-2 (LW23)
18. UTSA 8-0 (LW24)
19. Mississippi State 5-3 (LW-NR)
20. Kentucky 6-2 (LW11)
21. Wisconsin 5-3 (LW-NR)
22. Minnesota 6-2 (LW-NR)
23. Penn State 5-3 (LW15)
24. Pitt 6-2 (LW13)
25. Iowa 6-2 (LW14) L 7-27 Wisconsin
College Football Playoff Ranking Reaction
I might lose it if I see one more person complaining about Alabama being #2. If you (wrongly) think they are not a top four team right now good news, the schedule still has to play out. Sincerely if you think Alabama does not deserve a playoff spot but are not also going at Oregon, you are a hypocrite. Oregon lost on the road to a BAD Stanford team, Alabama lost on the road to an A&M team EVERYONE thought had the potential to make the playoffs. Just admit you do not like Alabama and are tired of them being good, because you can not seriously think Cincinnati and others belong over them. The only teams I would listen to is Georgia (obviously) and maybe Ohio State.
Finally to actually breaking this down and reacting. Our playoff road map has been set, and if your team is not a Big 10 or SEC team you are about to have a serious problem getting in. Seriously, what do we do if Oklahoma and Wake Forest both go 13-0? Is it truly just screw them? This is why we always should have gone to an eight team playoff, and why I will not forgive the ADs involved in the "Alliance" if it falls through and we do not get it next year like we are supposed to. Notice how that story has been dead since the offseason.
Let us work our way backwards, I am fine with Pitt you have seen my ranking, where I am confused is SDSU and Fresno. Fresno State being ranked is not the worst thing I had them at 27 (BYU 26th), but they literally just beat SDSU it does not make sense for them to be there. The next few I am obviously fine with they are close to my list, but I am upset at BYU being so high and not having UTSA ranked. BYU does not deserve to be 15 by ANY metric, certainly does not pass the eye test talent wise. Meanwhile UTSA is 8-0 right now, you have to rank them the only reason the committee did not is because they just had a bye week. I imagine they hop in next week assuming they beat UTEP.
I do not understand having Auburn over Texas A&M, people are really hopping on this Auburn team right now. I even said preseason that this team could be really good if we found out it was just coaching issue and that seems to be the case as this team buys in. But come on, we all need to slow our roll on them I have seen some crazy predictions. Okay I do not think Notre Dame is some world beater, but there is no reason to have the Michigan team that just collapsed in the second half over them. Certainly not over 9-0 Oklahoma, how in the world have they already played nine games? I truly do not believe we actually know how good Michigan or Michigan State are after that game and we certainly will not get an answer this weekend as they play Indiana and Purdue respectively. But next weekend the Big 10 becomes a lot clearer.
Listen Oregon needs to be thanking their lucky stars at the madness this year because they have no business still being at #4 after losing to Stanford, but their head to head win over Ohio State has kept their head above water. They have a spot if they win out, especially if Ohio State does as well. If Ohio State wins out that means they beat #3 Michigan State and #7 Michigan, they committee will use this as an excuse to jump them over Oregon saying they have significantly improved (they have). To think this through further, firstly if Alabama wins out then loses to Georgia they are out, but if they beat Georgia they will be #1 and Georgia will only fall to #3 so they do not have an immediate rematch. Oklahoma, not Cincy, is the team primed to jump into the top four. These next three weeks are a gauntlet for them. @ 12 Baylor, Iowa State and @ 11 Oklahoma State, if Ohio State is on fire killing teams and Oregon barely scrapes by I would not be shocked to see them fall out to Oklahoma. It would be wrong, but it is a possibility.
So how does Cincy get in? Oklahoma loses one of those games, Michigan State beats Ohio State on 11/20 (weakening Oregon's schedule as well even if they do not lose), and Alabama loses to Auburn or Georgia. It is going to take a lot Cincy. But seriously, what do we do if Wake Forest goes 13-0??? I need UNC to beat them this weekend or NC State next.. Because if they finish their schedule winning @UNC/Clemson/BC and 19 NC State at home and then 25 Pitt in the ACC Championship I do not know honestly how you can keep them out.
Bets I Should Have Won
This past weekend was embarrassing for myself here running #HLSBets, 1-11 unacceptable for the any sheet nevertheless the Bonus Sheet. I pride myself having the most consistent winning sheet in the country. People brag about their one weekend of success, their one parlay that hit out of hundreds, flashing units that they one off the one big upset they just threw a tiny bit on, not here at #HLSBets. I actually pride myself on winning ALL the time, every week. It is not about having one big week it is having consistent much above average winners every week. This big time pros are happy with just above 50% winners on significantly less bets per week than I make, #HLSBets is consistently at a higher number even having the NFL Bonus sheet sitting currently over 60% on over a hundred bets this season on it alone.
I can do better, I will do better, and we will win together.
Heisman Frontrunners
Kenneth Walker III +150
Bryce Young +175
CJ Stroud +450
Kenneth Walker III just cemented himself in the Heisman race with 23 carries for 197 yards and FIVE touchdowns in a game that EVERYONE in the football world watched. Most watched game of the season. I think it would be a dangerous bet on him now risk/reward wise because he is now only +150 and there is a very high probability that they lose multiple games still this season which, sadly, would knock him out of the running because this sadly generally is won by the best player on a top tier team.
Bryce Young enjoyed a bye week and his odds are still holding steady, but I am predicting he takes back the top spot after Nick Saban runs it up on LSU. Unless! Brain Robinson racks up another 4+ TD performance or he could jump up here as his odds are currently climbing at +4000. Just a thought.
CJ Stroud's odds meanwhile are currently falling after his "poor" performance of 305 yards and only 1 TD. This could be a good thing because Ohio State is still a very dominate team and could easily stay a playoff contender and with there decent but not great defense will certainly allow teams to stay in the game longer giving CJ more time to rack up his numbers. If they had a great defense I would be arguing for Treveyon Henderson who is sitting at +2000 and he is incredible, easily my favorite player on this team. Dude might be LEGIT great.
Sell Your Stock In
Matt Corral/Kenny Pickett/Bijan Robinson Heisman Hopes +4000
Iowa
Mississippi State
Just quick with their losses Matt Corral and Kenny Pickett are, barring some gigantic historic games statistically, out of the Heisman race. Can't wait to see them in draft prep! Pickett is still my QB1 right now.
Whatever self interest stock you have in Iowa I am recommended selling fast and jumping ship. We knew from the very beginning that this team had a bad offense and was built of good-great defense and LOTS of turnover luck. Well the turnover luck has officially flips as they were -3 in the turnover battle this weekend against Wisconsin. That defense is looking more and more human and some of that yes can be blamed on injuries but it is mainly built on their offense getting worse and worse so the defense is set up horribly most of the time in the field position game. This Northwestern team they are about to play is not good, at all, but they are scrappy and stay fighting in games. This is a terrible matchup for Iowa and this would be a VERY embarassing loss for the former #2 team in the country.
Same situation in a very different scenario. State has enjoyed some great games this season but them all the way at #17 and traveling to an Arkansas team that will relish beating them is dangerous. This Arkansas team is not the push over that Georgia made them look like they are the same time that BEAT Texas A&M and almost beat both Auburn and more so Ole Miss. Arkansas is even favored in this game -5 right now.
Buy Stock In
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Lets win baby, no excuses follow #HLSBets on Twitter @HaroldLStokes
