#HLSBets CFB Week 8 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!
Intro - Rundown
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! We just had yet another great weekend of CFB even in a weekend filled with bye weeks. So many exciting games, but also feels like more blowouts than normal. Very quickly before the rundown, we are just about at the midway point for the football season, so I want to let you know this week we have the special #HLSBets deal to buy in for the rest of the regular season AND bowl season for a special price if you DM me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes. On to the rundown!
This past weekend of CFB started off with me getting so aggravated by UAB on Friday night, just getting held to 0 points in the second half of a game against Western Kentucky that they should have easily won, but lost 17-20. Saturday had a few blow out games including Ohio State hanging 54 on Iowa's stout defense winning 54-10. UT Martin just got shellacked by Tennessee 65-24, as the Vols did not slip up or have a letdown week after a big win. Speaking of, Alabama looked like they were going to hang 50 on Miss State but failed to reach the endzone again after their third that came midway through the 2nd quarter. State was able to avoid the shut out scoring a last second TD, Alabama 30 Miss State 6. The shocking blowout of the weekend was how LSU just stomped Ole Miss 45-20, in a game that looked like it was going to have the reverse score after starting 17-3 Ole Miss. From the 2nd quarter on the LSU Tigers outscored them 42-6. Wake Forest beat up Boston College 43-15 at home. Penn State also beat up Minnesota 45-17 at home in a game I have to admit I was wrong about, I thought Ibrahim would expose this run defense once again.
Now to the exciting games. Clemson hosted one of the most surprising teams of the season Syracuse, and there was just way too much orange on the field. DJ just had a ROUGH day, eventually getting benched but Clemson held one to win 27-21 after being down 21-10 at halftime. Which looks worse than it was because the Syracuse defense picked up a fumble for a 90-yard TD, and the Clemson defense held their opponents under 300 yards of offense (including only 167 through the air). The Clemson offense giving away FOUR turnovers is what needs fixing. Oklahoma barely survived hosting the Texas Longhorns as they scored 17 unanswered points to end the game and win 41-34. I will talk about Oregon more down below but they had an EXPLOSIVE 2nd quarter scoring 28 offensive points and a 4th quarter comeback almost let the game slip away but the Ducks beat UCLA 45-30. Why in the world was UCLA ever ranked above them? TCU weathered a 21 point 2nd quarter from Kansas State and racked up almost 500 yards of offense to win 38-28 in a game where they dominated possession, holding the ball over 38 minutes of the game. On to the updated top 25!
#HLSBets Week 8 Top 25
1. Ohio State 7-0 W 54-10 over Iowa (LW2)
2. Clemson 8-0 W 27-21 over Syracuse (LW1)
3. Michigan 7-0 Bye Week (LW3)
4. Georgia 7-0 Bye Week (LW4)
5. Tennessee 7-0 W 65-24 over UT Martin (LW5)
6. Alabama 7-1 W 30-6 over Mississippi State (LW6)
7. Oregon 6-1 W 45-30 over UCLA (LW7)
8. TCU 7-0 W 38-28 over Kansas State (LW8)
9. Oklahoma State 6-1 W 41-30 over Texas (LW11)
10. USC 6-1 Bye Week (LW12)
11. Wake Forest 6-1 W 43-15 over Boston College (LW13)
12. Utah 5-2 Bye Week (LW14)
13. UCLA 6-1 L 30-45 to Oregon (LW9)
14. Ole Miss 7-1 L 20-45 to LSU (LW10)
15. Penn State 6-1 W 45-17 over Minnesota (LW17)
16. LSU 6-2 W 45-20 over Ole Miss (LWNR)
17. Kentucky 5-2 Bye Week (LW15)
18. North Carolina 6-1 Bye Week (LW20)
19. Kansas State 5-2 L 28-38 to TCU (LW16)
20. Syracuse 6-1 L 21-27 to Clemson (LW19)
21. Oregon State 6-2 W 42-9 over Colorado (LW24)
22. Illinois 6-1 Bye Week (LW22)
23. Tulane 7-1 W 38-28 over Memphis (LW25)
24. Cincinatti 6-1 W 29-27 over SMU (LWNR)
25. South Carolina 5-2 W 30-24 over Texas A&M (LWNR)
Fell Out: #18 Texas, #21 Mississippi State, #23 James Madison
Bets I Should Have Won
WVU @ Texas Tech 65.5 OVER
Texas @ Oklahoma State 59 UNDER
I mean what the heck West Virginia? This game had 90-point total written all over it but WVU just could not score to save their life. I swear there was at minimum 400 drops by WVU WRs as JT Daniels had about 12 tip pass interceptions. He was not blameless of course, but it is really hard to blame him when he had zero help around him. I mean 73 rushing yards on 26 attempts?? 2.8 yards per carry is rough. Texas Tech held up their end of the bargain scoring 48 points but WVU's 10 just ruined the easy over.
I think I will refuse to take Big 12 unders the rest of the season unless a special circumstance, I even wrote about it on the Bonus Sheet. I cannot believe my idiot self messed that bet up so bad taking the Oklahoma State Texas under, I put it in and immediately realized what in the world have I done. I had talked myself into it with accurate stats, but I forgot to factor in it being an important Big 12 game so of course it was going over. I am an idiot, that's on me.
Bets I Am Excited For
I have gone back and forth trying to choose which game, and it feels like the "smart" play is going with the BYU ECU game but that game could easily end up in an "upset" too so I am sticking with my first instinct here and going with the Virginia Tech North Carolina State game.
Virginia Tech 2-5 @ NC State 5-2 THURSDAY 6:30pm ESPN
O/U: 40 UNDER
Winner: Virginia Tech +420, +13.5
I will start this out with I am VERY aware this is a very risky play and if you aren't down for the risk STAY AWAY. This is one game that screams potential upset, NC State just does not ever beat VT. They have THREE wins against the Hokies since 1963, VT winning 8 out of the last 10 (including 5 straight) since 1986. Yes, OBVIOUSLY this is not the same VT team, and the argument can easily be made that NC State is due for a win, but even their last matchup in 2020 was a 45-24 win for VT. This is a dumb risk vs reward bet that I feel like has potential but let's look at some reasons why this isn't as crazy as it looks. NC State with Devin Leary is a completely different team than without but here are some full season stats that should be alarming.
NC State 90th in rushing yards per game 134.43 yards on 35.57 attempts
NC State 88th in passing yards per game 220.6 on 35 attempts
NC State 110th in passing yards per attempt 6.3
NC State 83rd in passing completion percentage 59.6%
NC State has only gotten 8 sacks this season
Very small sample size without him but lets see if those stats were just crushed by losing Leary in the past game and a half.
NC State vs FSU: 46 rushing attempts for 182 and 4.0 ypc, 23 passing attempts for 125 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt completing 47.8%, 1 sack.
NC State vs Syracuse: 38 rushing attempts for 95 yards and 2.5 ypc, 31 passing attempts for 160 on 5.2 yards per attempt completing 58.06%, 0 sacks.
Yes Syracuse is a better team than FSU but they also had Leary for a chunk of that game. VT is VERY middle of the pack rushing defense wise allowing 133.86 yards per game on the ground (51st in the nation), including the 68th best yards per attempt with 4.04. BUT I think those numbers have been inflated by two games specifically: Pitt running 43 times for 326 on 7.6 ypc, WVU running 46 times for 218 and 4.7 ypc. The stat that I think plays the biggest impact on this game is how weirdly good VT is on 3rd down defensively, they get off the field. VT is 15th in the nation in 3rd down % allowing only 29.70% of third downs to be completed. I expect this to be a game where we have about 70 combined rushing attempts. The safest bet of this game is easily the spread if you only want to ride there.
Heisman Frontrunners
CJ Stroud -125
Hendon Hooker +200
Caleb Williams +800
Blake Corum +1,000
Jahmyr Gibbs +1,800
Bryce Young +1,800
Not really anything changed this past weekend in the Heisman race. Our two frontrunners padded their stats, and the status quo of its CJ's to lose continues. Obviously, Hendon can wrestle it away from him going 13-0 beating Georgia and then Alabama again but how much faith do you have in that happening? Maybe worth a flier but CJ is about locked in for the Heisman.
DO NOT BET ON A RUNNING BACK TO WIN. I will keep saying it as long as they keep putting these guys up there. There is ZERO chance they win. Bryce on the other hand could have a shot if he really stat pads and this potential storybook season plays itself out.
The Big 12
I will preface this with this conference is still one of the most interesting conferences in the country but the strength of the conference looks weaker and weaker each week. Going into the season we had high hopes for over half the conference, Iowa State, Oklahoma, excited for WVU having JT Daniels, Baylor, and Texas, all of those teams already have at least 3 losses. Texas Tech proved scrappy and new head coach Joey McGuire has this team fighting hard but they also have 3 losses. The state of Kansas produced two surprising teams for us in the Jayhawks (5-3) and Kansas State (5-2). Oklahoma State held up their promise and are 6-1 on the season thus far but their loss to THE big surprise of the season TCU more than likely killed their playoff hopes. Meanwhile the Horned Frogs are the last team standing at 7-0 and will more than likely easily be 9-0 before going into their final three games @Texas, @Baylor and vs Iowa State. Sonny Dykes is keeping the hopes of the conference alive but I am curious if we do not find out come bowl season, that most of the bowl eligible teams don't lose in poor fashion. Some food for thought that has me worried, these are the conferences main out of conference games for the season:
Iowa State @ Iowa W 10-7
Oklahoma State vs Arizona St W 34-17
Kansas St vs Missouri W 40-12
Kansas St vs Tulane L 10-17
Texas vs Alabama L 19-20
Baylor @ BYU L 20-26
Texas Tech @ NC State L 14-27
Kansas vs Duke W 35-27
Oklahoma @ Nebraska W 49-14
WVU @ Pitt L 31-38
WVU @ VT W 33-10
Not really about the win/loss column but more so how weak these games actually are outside Alabama and NC State (at the time). The conference could be much worse than we think.
Oregon
Pac 12 Madness
Is this just a "haha I was right" victory lap for me to talk being right about Oregon because I was seemingly the only person in the country that didn't drop them after losing to Georgia? Yes, yes, it is. The Oregon Ducks are 6-1 and their final 5 games are, @Cal, @Colorado, Washington, Utah, @Oregon State, realistically the worst I see them finishing is 10-2 and could legitimately be 11-1 heading into the Pac 12 Championship as a legit playoff contender led by Heisman contender Bo Nix. Yes, I said Heisman contender Bo Nix, dude is having an outstanding season so far: 1,809 passing yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs, 71.5 % completion, 382 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs. So, about 2,100 total yards, 25 total TDs through 7 games. So, if he keeps this pace up, he will have by the end of the Pac 12 championship, 3,900 yards and 46 TDs, that's a Heisman contender if they go 12-1.
The most interesting conference, at least at the top half, has easily been the Pac 12. Oregon, USC and UCLA are all 6-1, Washington and Oregon State are both 6-2, and Utah is 5-2. Combined they are 25-1 at home with the only loss is USC beating Oregon State. Point being, things are about to get messy as the top half of the league all plays against each other in the coming weeks. We just talked about Oregon's remaining schedule but here are the remaining big games for the others. These games will determine the conference and their bowl season race.
USC vs Notre Dame
Utah @ Oregon
Oregon State @ Washington
Oregon State vs Oregon
Washington @ Oregon
Outro - Games I Am Excited For
Ohio State @ Penn State 11am Fox
TCU @ WVU 11am ESPN
Notre Dame @ Syracuse 11am ABC
Oklahoma St @ Kansas St 2:30pm Fox
Kentucky @ Tennessee 6pm ESPN
Thank you all so much for reading, as always be sure to follow me on Twitter (and all social media platforms) @HaroldLStokes . On Twitter is where I post the weekly free public #HLSBets sheets and that's where you can DM me for more info on joining the Bonus Sheet!
