#HLSBets CFB Week 5 Recap, Rundown, Top 25 and More!
Intro-Rundown
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! This was such a weird weekend of football, with weirdly close games, tons of upsets and excellent matchups, let's just jump straight into the rundown but first follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes for the weekly free Public Bets Sheet and you can dm for more info on how to join the Bonus Sheet with additional games with breakdowns!
The CFB weekend started off on Thursday with BYU reinvigorating an old rivalry with Utah State, in a game that was surprisingly close, tied at halftime, but BYU eventually pulled away a bit to win 38-26. On Friday night Washington was just about ran off the field by UCLA, but 16 4th quarter points made it look a lot closer than the game actually was, UCLA won 40-32. The struggles continued Saturday with Georgia just putting on a pitiful performance for a second straight week, but eventually prevailed 26-22. Penn State, in one of the most boring games possible, beat Northwestern 17-7. Yawn. The boats apparently can only be rowed by Ibrahim, and without him Minnesota fell to Purdue 10-20. Georgia Tech rolled into Pitt and reminded people, no idea why anyone thought they deserved to be ranked, that they suck beating them 26-21.
Michigan's offense plodded through the game against Iowa, but their defense gave up the shutout in the 4th for a 27-14 Wolverine victory. Kansas State survived their let down spot after beating Oklahoma last week, fighting against a hungry Texas Tech to win 37-28. TCU was a terrible host to the Sooners who were already upset after last week, they just absolutely demolished Oklahoma 55-24. In the biggest fumbled bag of the weekend Kentucky proved maybe they should look towards basketball season, as Will Levis dropped the ball against Ole Miss to lose 19-22. The most embarrassing game of the weekend though was played by Texas A&M as the Aggies went over to Starkville and got stomped 24-42.
Wake Forest gave a rude awakening to Florida State, when they showed up to beat them 31-21. Bryce Young was on pace for an incredible game beating up on the Hogs, but even when he went down the Razorbacks just had absolutely nothing for Alabama as the Tide rolled 49-26. In one of the best games of the weekend NC State went to Clemson and had their hopes crashed as the Tigers just outpaced the Wolfpack 30-20. Is Oklahoma State a title contender or have people like me just been overrating Baylor? The Cowboys were just in complete control, looking like the superior team to win 36-25.
Ohio State just about had a bench clearing brawl against Rutgers after a (kind of deserved) big hit on the punter when the Buckeyes ran a fake punt up 39 points, OSU won 49-10. In a game that was pretty close at halftime, the USC Trojans pulled away to beat Arizona State 42-25. Utah beat down on a pretty decent Oregon State team 42-16. Oregon showed strength against a bad Stanford team, winning 45-27. Wisconsin was embarrassed once again, to a sneaky good Illinois team 34-10. Kansas won a nailbiter against Iowa State 14-11 reaching 5-0 for the first time since 2009. And James Madison beat down Texas State 40-13. On to the new #HLSBets Top 25 with a few BIG movers!
#HLSBets Week 5 Top 25
1. Clemson 5-0 W 30-20 over NC State (LW4)
2. Alabama 5-0 W 49-26 over Arkansas (LW2)
3. Ohio State 5-0 W 49-10 over Rutgers (LW3)
4. Georgia 5-0 W 26-22 over Missouri (LW1)
5. Michigan 5-0 W 27-14 over Iowa (LW5)
6. USC 5-0 W 42-25 over Arizona State (LW6)
7. Oklahoma State 4-0 W 36-25 over Baylor (LW12)
8. Utah 4-1 W 42-16 over Oregon State (LW7)
9. Tennessee 4-0 Bye Week (LW8)
10. Oregon 4-1 W 45-27 over Stanford (LW10)
11. Ole Miss 5-0 W 22-19 over Kentucky (LW17)
12. NC State 4-1 L 20-30 Clemson (LW11)
13. BYU 4-1 W 38-26 over Utah State (LW15)
14. Penn State 5-0 W 17-7 over Northwestern (LW19)
15. Kentucky 4-1 L 19-22 to Ole Miss (LW9)
16. TCU 4-0 W 55-24 over Oklahoma (LWNR)
17. Kansas State 4-1 W 37-28 over Texas Tech (LW22)
18. Wake Forest 4-1 W 31-21 over FSU (LW20)
19. Mississippi State 4-1 W 42-24 over Texas A&M (LWNR)
20. UCLA 5-0 W 40-32 over Washington (LWNR)
21. James Madison 4-0 W 40-13 over Texas State (LW23)
22. Kansas 5-0 W 14-11 over Iowa State (LW24)
23. Coastal Carolina 5-0 W 34-30 over Georgia Southern (LW25)
24. Syracuse 5-0 W 59-0 over Wagner (LWNR)
25. Maryland 4-1 W 27-13 over Michigan State (LWNR)
Dropped Out: #13 Oklahoma, #14 Texas A&M, #16 Baylor, #18 Minnesota, #21 Washington
Bets I Should Have Won
I am not that upset at anything specifically this week. I went 0-3 in the Oklahoma TCU game, but that was just a butt whipping so nothing to really fuss about beside just a general what the heck was that Sooners? Go yell boomer louder. Then the A&M Miss State game was another shellacking, I guess it is time to bury the idea that A&M's defense is to be feared this season. Less terrible spoken poetry open mics.
If I was going to choose a game, I was actually upset at it was the Ole Miss Kentucky game. I took the over 54.5, Landsharks ML and -6.5 spread. The final was 22-19 Rebels. It was so wild watching the game because when the Black Bear offense was rolling it seemed unstoppable, just hitting their marks over and over driving the field but they just couldn't get in the endzone. They should have doubled their score but at times their incredible rate of play hurt them. Will Levis just kept falling right into their trap, you never want to blame a game on specific plays, but those fumbles hurt, but had me cheering.
Bets I Am Excited For
This week's BIAEF is this section. Two weeks, 6 bets, 6 wins. Pressure is on now. Hopefully we can nail it once again. Colorado State is one of the worst teams (if not the) in the nation. CSU has allowed TWENTY-FIVE sacks in FOUR games. That is 6.25 per game, which is worst in the nation. They already got starting QB Clay Millen hurt and he is likely missing this weeks game but should be returning two OLmen this week. Let's see if they can help this atrocious protection. They will be starting their 5th OL combination. This is game 5. You know you're having a bad start to the season when you are last in the Mountain West in scoring and rushing yards per game (10.6 and 46 yards per game).
Nevada football head coach Ken Wilson has been through absolute tragedy and I hope he receives comfort and peace. Nevade beat CSU last season to end the regular season 52-10 in a game that was over at halftime 31-0. I don't expect an exact replica of last year but if a similar game plays out I would not be shocked.
Colorado State @ Nevada Friday 9:30pm FS1
O/U: 44 OVER
Winner: Nevada -170, -3.5
Weather: low is 46, 0% rain
Heisman Frontrunners
CJ Stroud +100
Caleb Williams +700
Bryce Young +1,000
We all know this award isn't actually about the best player in the nation, it generally goes to the best player on the best team, who has the stats to back it up. Right now, CJ Stroud is running away with this almost midway through the regular season. So betting wise, CJ is the safest bet right now if you believe they will run the regular season table. Especially when you look at how pitiful the Big 10 West is this season. Withholding some unforeseen serious drop in production or injury, if they win out the award is practically CJs already.
Caleb Williams is in this race as long as he wins but he needs serious style points to overcome the gap between he and CJ, assuming they both finish the season on this track. Caleb Williams has 2 HUGE potential opportunities for what we all call Heisman moments, or a Heisman game. Notre Dame sucking this season is very detrimental to his campaign, but on 10/15 they travel to Utah for a top 10 matchup that will be hyped up and could be Game Day; But the game I think could be gigantic is 11/19 against UCLA. This weekend I think UCLA probably loses to Utah but then they have a chance immediately to start their climb back up the rankings in a road trip to Oregon. After that they play Stanford, @ Arizona St, and then Arizona, if this team is 9-1 and Caleb Williams rolls up and demolishes them the national media will lose their collective minds and want to give Caleb Williams the trophy right there.
How hurt is Bryce Young? Can his potential Heisman repeat campaign survive missing a game? We do not know the answer to either question right now, but we do know now that his shoulder is injuried Alabama is going to be less likely to run it up passing the ball and will try to help protect him. Alabama focuses on winning championships not stat padding. I would not recommend laying anything on Bryce to win at this point even though his odds will climb. Do not waste money on Gibbs either, seen his odds jump up to 6th, they are just stealing money on that.
Sell Stock In
Big 10 - Least Interesting Conference
Penn State
Conference Realignment
The Big Ten has always been joked about being a boring conference but they constantly put out quality players and contend for titles, at least some teams do. But what is going on this year? There are three 5-0 teams, and three 4-1 teams, but really only one fun team to watch. Penn State is the most overrated team in the nation, Michigan has a laughingstock schedule, but at least Ohio State is fun to watch. The Buckeyes are very clearly a top tier team in the nation, and we truly do not know if Michigan is yet but hopefully they actually are.
I am someone clinging on to CFB as it is, and when you look at the landscape of the game right now, why in the world would USC and UCLA want to leave the Pac 12 for the Big Ten? I understand the chaos that is the Big 12 continuing to fall apart but the Pac 12 is finally coming out of its down years and teams are improving and seem to be ready to compete on the national scale once again. Meanwhile in the Big Ten the conference has grown weaker and weaker each season as Ohio State (and Michigan to a lesser degree) separates themself from the pack more and more. The average Big Ten team is weaker than the average Pac 12 team in my opinion. The obvious answer is that money is the reason why they are eventually leaving but I think it is shortsighted. The eventual mega conferences will be the death of CFB. And if you think you will be in favor of them I hope your favorite team is in the top half of the conferences money and success wise, otherwise they will eventually be cut out of the pie and left to die.
Buy Stock In
Big 12 - Most Interesting Conference
Pac 12 - Swan Song
Georgia
The Big 12 and Pac 12 are both putting on very fun performances this season, but the Big 12 has easily been the most interesting conference this season. Kansas is America's team right now and I am so happy I was on the hype train from the start, let's ride. Oklahoma getting EMBARASSED back to back weeks by Kansas State and TCU has the whole CFB nation cheering. Texas with Quinn Ewers is electric and even without him they put up a serious fight against Alabama. Mike Gundy's Cowboys seem to be ready to fight for a playoff push with Spencer Sanders making strides playing his best ball. TCU is just exciting ball to watch with one of the best rushing attacks with just everyone getting involved. Joey McGuire seems to have reinvigorated Texas Tech into a legit program again. Every game there are fireworks in the Big 12.
The Big 12 shares a fellow sadness with the Pac 12 as this is one of the last seasons the conferences will look as they do. The Pac 12 is putting up one heck of a swan song thus far. LA teams popping off for a combined 10-0, Chip Kelly and Lincoln Riley have these programs fighting to earn back the respect they have lost. Oregon and Utah are still showing off as the powers of the conference who will hold that crown until proven otherwise as they have only lost to the SEC. Both Washington and Washington State have shown serious resurgence this season, more than anyone expected preseason. Meanwhile Arizona has already beaten their preseason win total of 2.5 being 3-2 on the season. I just think the Pac 12 as a whole is showing so much more excitement and strength than they have in a very longtime.
Outro - Games I'm Looking Forward To
Tennessee @ LSU 11am ESPN
TCU @ Kansas 11am FS1
Utah @ UCLA 2:30pm FOX
North Carolina @ Miami 3pm ESPN2
To be honest, I don't try to make this list one from each conference but when I saw it was I looked through the Big 10 games and man none of them are that interesting. Purdue @ Maryland is the one I will definitely watch because I think Maryland deserves more credit this season but this game could prove otherwise, and Iowa @ Illinois solely because I want to see what Chase Brown does to that Hawkeye defense and if he just has another great game not missing a beat, then the fifth-year junior deserves to get more praise across the country.
Thank you so much for reading, if you have made it this far I am doing a Halloween special right now. If you quote tweet this blog with the #HLSBets AND then dm me you can join the Bonus Sheet for a special price of $25 but this is only available up until the 11am kickoffs. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes for weekly free #HLSBets public sheets and let's win some money this weekend!
