CFB Power 5 Previews: Independents + A Few
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! This week we are going to look at EVERY team in the power 5 conferences, and the independents with a few extras thrown in, win total and discussing how I am betting it for each team. In this section I will be going over, no offense meant to group of 5 schooled excluded, the "important" group of 5 teams as well as the Independents and the military academies. Before we get started be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes so you can follow along each week's #HLSBets public bet sheet. As always you can buy in for the Bonus Bets sheets weekly or buy in for the full season, DM me on Twitter for more information.
Appalachian Sate
2021 Record: 10-4
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
This team more than likely will start 0-2 (never know they could upset UNC) but then honestly could go 10-0 to finish the regular season. 8.5 is a great number for this over, if you get anything higher you could begin to think about staying away.
Army
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 8
Bet: STAY AWAY
Not touching this teams total unless I can get 7.5 or 8.5. 8 wins feels correct for this team. I see at least 3 potential losses on this schedule and it just takes one Ball State to ruin the bet.
Air Force
2021 Record: 10-3
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
I am actually very confused at this only being 8.5. I was expecting their win total to be at least 9 before I looked it up. This team brings back most of its starters and should continue to have the best rushing attack in the country on paper. Four of their tougher games they get the benefit of them being at home this year, I am expecting 10-2 if not better regular season.
BYU
2021 Record: 10-3
Win Total O/U: 8
Bet: OVER
I feel like it is every season someone is trying to push BYU to be better than they actually are. Look at their schedule, they have 4 losable games. It only takes them winning one of them to turn this into a winner, and I think October 15th when they host Arkansas might just be it.
Cincinnati
2021 Record: 13-1
Win Total O/U: 9.5
Bet: RISKY UNDER
This team looks to take a serious step back this season after losing just about everyone aside from the offensive line. IF this team looks to reload this season the OL will be the reason they have a shot at doing so returning all 5 starters from last season. Now is the AAC tough enough this year to challenge them from threepeating? I am not sure; I see this team going 9-3 or 8-4 but they have a VERY easy schedule this season.
UConn
2021 Record: 1-11
Win Total O/U: 2.5
Bet: UNDER
Jim Mora is doing good things with this program turning it around finally since collapsing post the Big East days but, and it is sad to say, 2.5 wins is still too high. Give him a few years of recruiting to possibly have a shot but this is still UConn.
Coastal Carolina
2021 Record: 11-2
Win Total O/U: 8
Bet: OVER
This team only returns 6 starters, including replacing the punter and kicker. 2 guys on defense and 4 on offense. This year is the true test to find out if Head Coach Jamey Chadwell just had a lucky recruiting class or two or if this team is a new powerhouse in the Sun Belt. I personally am taking the over, just for the enjoyment I get watching this team the past few years but if you are not bought in for Grayson McCall I would recommend you stay away.
Houston
2021 Record: 12-2
Win Total O/U: 9.5
Bet: OVER
It is time to shine for the Cougars in their final season before jumping to the Big 12. No UCF or Cincy on the schedule, if they can beat Texas Tech week 2 they have a real shot of going undefeated in the regular season really leaving their mark on the conference they have outgrown.
James Madison
2021 Record: 12-2
Win Total O/U: 6
Bet: OVER
Curt Cignetti's Dukes have been dominating in the FCS going 33-5 since he took over at JM, but do they have what it takes to continue their success jumping up a division. I am really curious how this team does this year and based on what I have seen from this team the past few year I am willing to beat they will be successful I feel comfortable at the over of 6. They return a strong group of talent and if they can figure out the QB they will have a solid group of RBs and WRs bolstered by some transfers.
Liberty
2021 Record: 8-5
Win Total O/U: 7
Bet: STAY AWAY
Malik Willis helps hide a lot, but really won't know how much unless you are there on the practice field with them. This team is such an unknown losing Willis and 8 starters from their very solid defense. Don't touch it.
UMass
2021 Record: 1-11
Win Total O/U: 2
Bet: UNDER
Look at the schedule and tell me who you think their 2+ wins could possibly be. Seriously, UConn and who? Stony Brook? 2 is their absolute MAX win total this year and I would not be shocked to see them go 0-12.
Navy
2021 Record: 4-8
Win Total O/U: 4
Bet: STAY AWAY
I personally think the Midshipmen take a return to form this year beating last years record but because I cannot point to 5 wins on the schedule I am going to stay away.
New Mexico State
2021 Record: 2-10
Win Total O/U: 2.5
Bet: UNDER
This is sneaky the worst team on this entire list. Yes worse than UConn, I am sad they don't play this season. Last season they snuck out 2 wins because they are willing to throw the ball as much as possible and hope something breaks, but even then that ended with them having the 123rd best rushing attack and 105th scoring offense in the entire country. To make matters worse (or better?) they only return their tackles from last seasons offense. This year they look to run the ball more and I guess we will find out if they turns into points.
Notre Dame
2021 Record: 11-2
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: UNDER
I think this one is risky, if you get 8 stay away. I think this team goes exactly 8-4. If this OL doesn't hold strong like it finished last season it could get even worse. I am rooting for Marcus Freeman to continue this programs success, but there is always first year bumps in the road. Be prepared.
UAB
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
After having the most dominating defense in Conference USA last season this team is replacing a big chunk of the unit but if they can figure out their defensive line, they should be in an excellent position to bounce back and have another great year. This team cannot have mishaps like last year's Rice game and expect to hit the over. I am hoping Bill Clark puts them in position to not make those same mistakes this season.
UCF
2021 Record: 9-4
Win Total O/U: 9.5
Bet: OVER
I really want to hate this team Annoying fans, annoying head coach but I don't see three losses on the schedule with how Malzahn has improved this team so much. Losing Dillon Gabriel should have derailed their season but they just held on and just kept winning games with true freshman Mikey Keene. Now with a full season and offseason under his belt Keene might get a chance to shine in this offense.
