CFB Power 5 Previews: Big 12 Win Totals
Welcome back to #HLSBets on HLS Entertainment! This week we are going to look at EVERY team in the power 5 conferences, and the independents with a few extras thrown in, win total and discussing how I am betting it for each team. Last season I was 6-1 in the Big 12, with 3 stay aways. They were Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. As the conference is in its last year as currently formatted, we will see a lot of teams going after Texas and Oklahoma tougher than they even normally would. Be sure to soak in these games this year as the Big 12 will look very different going forward as Cincy, UCF, Houston and BYU join the conference for the 2023 season. Before we get started be sure to follow me on Twitter @HaroldLStokes so you can follow along each week's #HLSBets public bet sheet. As always you can buy in for the Bonus Bets sheets weekly or buy in for the full season, DM me on Twitter for more information.
TCU
2021 Record: 5-7
Win Total O/U: 7
Bet: UNDER
This team returns a lot of talent and I do think Sonny Dykes open approach will work in building up the program, but he will need a few years to build it properly. I will say he could very easily get this team to buy in and steal some wins in the second half of the season which makes this a risky under.
Texas
2021 Record: 5-7
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
There is ZERO reason based on what we saw this team last year to bet this over. They should quietly improve and go 8-5. BUT the longer I stare and think about their schedule.. only Alabama is a for sure loss. If they are worse than 4-1 heading into the Red River Shootout then we can be worried. Oklahoma is taking a step back this year but will be stout and they end the season at home against a Baylor team we know might be taking a step back. This team could easily be 10-2 or 9-3 on this schedule.
Texas Tech
2021 Record: 7-6
Win Total O/U: 5.5
Bet: OVER
If this team beats Houston in week 2 I think they will end up bowl eligible. There most important stretch of the season? @TCU and home for Kansas, that has to be 2-0. I have heard great things about new head coach Joey McGuire and I am looking forward to see what he can build with this program but this year will be fighting tooth and nail for bowl season. Those extra practices would be HUGE for this program going forward.
West Virginia
2021 Record: 6-7
Win Total O/U: 6
Bet: OVER
Yes this is 100% a JT Daniels bet. I love his play and think he can be incredible. Stick with that bet if you want or not I think he can make every throw on the field and can carry teams to wins, and with the pretty solid WRs around him he might have a blast slinging the rock and singing Country Roads.
Baylor
2021 Record: 12-2
Win Total O/U: 7.5
Bet: OVER
I mean point to me the five losses. OBVIOUSLY I think this team over performed last season but they are still building. This team is going to be a powerhouse as long as Dave Aranda is not poached by another school. I am very excited to see what QB Blake Shapen can turn out to be this season.
Iowa State
2021 Record: 7-6
Win Total O/U: 7
Bet: Risky OVER
Listen Iowa State fans, I understand Brock Purdy was the winningest QB in team history, but he was also the most overrated QB in the country. I am really hoping Hunter Dekkers gets to shine and Matt Campbell looks smart for staying. Because another 7-6 season and the regret of not taking a bigger job regret will sink in. Will Mcdonald be set up for a KILLER season.
Kansas
2021 Record: 2-10
Win Total O/U: 2.5
Bet: OVER
Kansas Jayhawk nation, lets ride. Again. After being in on this team last year because of the amazing things I heard about Leipold I am down to believe in this team once again. Lets grown 2 wins to 3. Lance Leipold really might deserve coach of the year if this team makes it to bowl eligibility.
Kansas State
2021 Record: 8-5
Win Total O/U: 7
Bet: STAY AWAY
It is so weird, I believe in Chris Klieman improving this program but rolling Adrian Martinez out there after having Skylar Thompson feels like a step back instead of a step forward. Deuce Vaughn might be a top tier RB in the country but I am unsure how far he can carry them.
Oklahoma
2021 Record: 11-2
Win Total O/U: 9
Bet: RISKY OVER
This is still Oklahoma. Do not get it twisted, they still have the most talented roster in the entire conference. BUT, Brent Venables is a first time head coach so he is sure to have some stumbles as we go along in the season, and I am sure he may be molding that roster to something that fits his schemes which can rub people the wrong way, you just show me the 3 losses on the schedule. I do not see them. Dillon Gabriel coming in was excellent for this team to stay afloat of their expectations after losing both Williams and Rattler.
Oklahoma State
2021 Record:
Win Total O/U: 8.5
Bet: OVER
At Oklahoma, Texas and at Baylor. Do you think this team losses all three games. That is the determination for this bet. I think they go 2-1 in those games. Luckily, they have an embarrassingly easy opening 3 games before traveling to Baylor to get their defense figured out after losing so much talent and production from one of if not THE best defense in the conference last season.
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