#HLSBets CFB Week 4 Recap, Top 25, Rundown and More!
Welcome back to HLS Entertainment and #HLSBets! I hope you are enjoying reading this blog from your original iPhone because the 2021 college football season is just 2007 all over again. This time things might get even weirder. I adore the madness, that is what makes college football so great, but if four teams do not separate themselves from the pack this offseason will be filled with furious fanbases who got left out of the playoffs. Be sure to follow me on twitter @HaroldLStokes for weekly #HLSBets public sheets and you can message me on there to join in on the Bonus Sheet as well.
Now I do not know what exactly is the cause for this craziness this year in CFB but I have two theories. First off and the most obvious is, fans are back. Crowds are much more impactful than most fans realize, just from being able to communicate on the field and simply snapping the ball. Crowd noise is something that good teams actively prepare for, a lot of them that have indoor facilities will recreate the crowd noise using giant loudspeakers creating the deafening noise so players and coaches are used to it come gameday. The second and I think most over looked reason is recruiting. Schools like Clemson and Ohio State have had an absolute strangle hold on recruiting for so long because they took advantage of well, the internet. They actually broke down the countless thousands of recruits in the country using student interns to cut up film so they are not wasting time and find more hidden gems. Now the rest of the country has picked up on this game and the playing field has evened out significantly. The top tier talent still goes to the blue bloods, but there are less misses on the middle tier players. Now on to this weeks weekend rundown.
Fresno State kicked off the weekend Friday night taking down UNLV 38-30, they were this close to being respected nationally but you have to bury teams like UNLV. Georgia took the soul from Vanderbilt in just a demoralizing beatdown 62-0 and continue to prove they are in the rare air of an actual title contender. Penn State had a trap game that was too close for the competition, beating basketball school Villanova 38-17. Notre Dame had one of the best wins of the weekend in Chicago in a second half beatdown killing any hope Wisconsin had for the remainder of the season 41-13. Coastal Carolina got back on track overpowering UMass 53-3. Iowa is living on the edge right now, and really need to step up to their ranking before they eventually get upset, scraping by Colorado State 24-14.
Oh boy two big ones.
Texas A&M just demolished their fanbase's hopes and dreams for the millionth time since pre World War II, getting just embarrassed on both sides of the ball and losing to a not very great Arkansas team in a game the scoreboard does not reflect the game 10-20. Dabo Swinney needs to do some soul searching for his team, this Clemson squad is not close to the caliber we have seen the past few years and it showed in their 21-27 loss to NC State. Matt Campbell is both screwing up his Iowa State hopes and his own hopes for the USC job losing once again, this time to Baylor 29-31. Michigan had a scare against a much improved Rutgers team but pulled out the 20-13 win. Bo Nix finally was benched in Auburn as they were nearly embarrassed against Georgia State but pull it out 34-24 in a score that does not show the entire picture as GS had a chance to score and win but the game was sealed on a pick six. UCLA continues to be average and not worth talking about in a 35-24 win over Stanford. Emory Jones is doing his best to hold onto his starting job throwing 21/27 and beating Tennessee 38-14, but with cleared Anthony Richardson returning this week it might change.
Michigan State almost had a severe letdown, escaping their game against Nebraska 23-20. Alabama wrecked Southern Miss 63-14, but the real story here is the emergence of Jameson Williams who touched the ball four times for 258 yards and three touchdowns. Spencer Rattler and Oklahoma lost the fan base on Saturday getting booed but pulling out the 15-13 W over West Virginia. Ohio State does what they are supposed to do and stomps Akron 59-7. Georgia Tech reminds North Carolina they are a basketball school, crushing their spirits 45-22. BYU won their game on field position and big plays only, otherwise this outcome might be very different than this 35-27 win over USF. Oregon was sleep walking through their game against Arizona but finally woke up in the fourth and pulled away to win 41-19.
#HLSBets Week 3 Top 25
1. Georgia 4-0 (LW1)
2. Alabama 4-0 (LW2)
3. Oregon 4-0 (LW4)
4. Iowa 4-0 (LW5)
5. Penn State 4-0 (LW12)
6. Oklahoma 4-0 (LW7)
7. Ohio State 3-1 (LW8)
8. Arkansas 4-0 (LW17)
9. Notre Dame 4-0 (LW10)
10. Cincinnati 4-0 (LW11)
11. Florida 3-1 (LW12)
12. Ole Miss 3-0 (LW13)
13. Michigan 4-0 (LW16)
15. Michigan State 4-0 (LW18)
16. Coastal Carolina 4-0 (LW21)
17. Oklahoma State 4-0 (LW22)
18. Baylor 4-0 (LW-NR)
19. Kentucky 4-0 (LW-NR)
20. Maryland 4-0 (LW-NR)
21. Wake Forest 4-0 (LW-NR)
22. NC State 3-1 (LW-NR)
23. Boston College 4-0 (LW-NR)
24. Army 4-0 (LW-NR)
25. Texas A&M 3-1 (LW3)
Bets I Should Have Won
Mississippi State Mike Leach ruins State's chance at winning the game. This team had an absolutely terrible afternoon that was somehow made MUCH worse because their head coach either made an idiotic decision to challenge an obvious onside kick call, OR someone in his booth convinced him that they touched it and that person might not have a job right now. Either way, just a terrible coaching decision. The ball did not go the distance and very clearly did not touch an LSU player. BUT what Mississippi State DID have was a shot at forcing a three and out with that timeout giving them a chance when the game is 28-25 after being down so much. Just trust your team man, losing WITH your players is always the better outcome than never even getting that chance because you absolutely just waste a time out. If Mike Leach's seat isn't heating up in Starkville after that decision I do not know what is happening down there.
Heisman Frontrunners
Matt Corral +125
Bryce Young +150
JT Daniels +1200
Somehow on a bye week Matt Corral's odds passed Bryce Young's making him the new number 1 favorite for the Heisman race. JT Daniels hilariously went down as it seems the "experts" are convinced this is a two horse race, after Malik Willis and Liberty lost to Syracuse. Bad loss for Hugh Freeze but not here to talk about the former Ole Miss coach. An absolute WILD CARD I want to bring up is the Pittsburgh Panthers QB Kenny Pickett, I have seen him unlisted or at +10,000 with certain books. His stats are currently completely empty numbers (that are top 5 in nearly every category), but if they keep winning? Their schedule looks a heck of a lot easier today than it did to start the season. Just a thought.
If I see one more person trying to pump Dorian Thompson-Robinson for clicks because he is a LA QB I might lose it. Dude's completion % is 57.3... FIFTY-SEVEN point three. Please shut up about this senior UCLA QB, he does not deserve to be anywhere near this conversation. Another name I do want to keep on our minds is Kenneth Walker III, the junior Michigan State RB in this wild year he could shoot up Heisman voting lists.
Sell Your Stock In
Clemson
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Listen the entire country and the playoff committee was prepared to wait out Clemson's offensive issues as long as they kept winning and their defense continued to show to be one of the elite in the country. After this weekend they broke both of those two conditions. This team does not deserve to be ranked, not to even mention does not deserve to be even brought up in CFP discussions. Even if this season continues down this 2007 like paths, this team has shown us nothing that could be even redeemable enough to bring them up again at the end of the season.
Texas A&M, another team we were all willing to give the benefit of the doubt to. Well they made us all look like idiots. The only shot A&M has to redeem their season is not up to them, if Arkansas turns out to be a legit team then that loss looks much better.
But speaking of Arkansas, I am hopping off this overhyped train before it gets started. Sell high on this team, watching that game in Arlington neither team looked good. Both of these squads are going to lose to Alabama by 30+. But that is not the standard for Arkansas, this is a school that has been
Buy Stock In
Baylor
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Dave Aranda and Baylor are finally getting into the meat of their schedule. Beating Iowa State proved this team is not just another waste of space bottom tier Big 12 team, but now it is on them to prove they deserve to be ranked. At Oklahoma State, West Virginia, BYU, Texas, are their next month of games. Come November we will either be discussing a challenger to Oklahoma for the Big 12 and possibly the CFP with this insane year or we will have completely written this team off for this year.
Is Wake Forest the best team in the ACC? I do not know and I am not sure we will know for a little while. This team has an incredibly easy October schedule and might be 8-0 before they head to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels. Seriously Louisville at home, at Syracuse, at Army (future top 25 matchup?), then Duke at home before Halloween. This team might be in for a real treat of an October.
I am not a big ND guy, this team has been a mess but you have to respect that win over Wisconsin. And now I am buying into them more so because they are about to host a very over rated Cincy team that will just push them higher up the rankings. Then there honestly is not a challenge left on the schedule with how some of these teams have been playing. If they survive October unscathed (Cincy, @VT, USC, UNC) then this team makes the CFP and gets stomped out by Alabama or Georgia by 40.
Thank you for reading be sure to share this on social media and follow me on twitter @HaroldLStokes. Weekly #HLSBets public sheets get posted there for both CFB and NFL. Each public sheet generally has 4+ full standard betting games (Total, ML, Spread) and for even more action dm me on twitter and ask about joining the bonus sheet list. You can still join the full regular season list for only $50 if you dm me the phrase "Mike Leach is the Andy Reid of CFB with timeouts".
