I'm Dumb This Is So Way Too Early CFB Top 25
Welcome to #HLSBets Top 25s! Expanding from just putting out consistent winners each week in College Football, I will now be letting you into this crazy mind of how I breakdown these teams each week with a top 25 with breakdown of each team. Why each team is ranked where and how that effects gambling. I will NOT be ranking teams just for show and I will tell you right now the UCFs, Cincys, Libertys and Coastals of the world will NEVER be in my top 4 without a much better schedule than they play. You play in the JV conferences earn respect by beating one or two of the big boys.
As I write this it is March 30th, Spring ball for most schools has not even started yet. There is a LOT to learn over the next few months so take this ranking with a Mount Vesuvius sized grain of salt, one injury or breakout player here or there can blow this list wide open.
So we are on the same page this ranking is based off a few things:
-Returning Starters
Obvious impact in the positives of returning players, but also the question marks of starters lost
-Schedule
Easy, how tough is their schedule and are their hardest games at home or away
-Coaching Changes
New coaches new philosophies, it is why everyone with a brain called LSU being trash last year.
Oh your favorite football writer or commentator thought LSU would reload last year? Idiot
-Conference Strength
Conference matters, going 9-3 in the Big10 is much more impressive than 12-0 in the Mountain West conference
-Impact Newcomers
New Freshmen or transfers, who stole a big time CFB free agent in the transfer portal
Things this ranking is not based on
-"oh they won 4 games last year they will suck this year too"
Teams have bad years and develop
-"oh they won 9 games last year they are definitely winning more this year"
Teams have good years and regress
-" oh they won the national title they earned number 1 for this year"
That chemistry is gone, every season is an entirely new animal
Now that I have explained that, probably pissed off some UCF fans, they can go screw themselves anyways who cares, let us get down to business here is the very first #HLSBets CFB Ranking!
25. Louisiana
Billy Napier has to bring his A game once again this season after turning down so many jobs. I imagine there is a certain one he is after but he has to keep Louisiana on top of the Sun Belt to stay relevant.
24. Mississippi State
I can't wait for the Egg Bowl already, It might be a battle for who has 9-10 wins.
23. Washington
This might as well be an #HLSBets cry for help, I can't stop believing in the Huskies. I have for three years now. Last year they at least went 3-1.
22. Ole Miss
Nearly every skill player returning to an offense that can score with ANYBODY. Do not be surprised when they win nine games.
21. LSU
LSU had their bad season that I told you about last summer. Time for a rebound, not even a division push just a solid season. Daronte Jones leaves his role as the Vikings DB coach to replace Bo Pelini as DC and Carolina Panthers QB coach Jake Peetz joins the staff as the OC, 7-9 wins and end up here post bowl game.
20. Iowa
Expect a big season from Tyler Goodson, 914 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in 8 games as the back up is always promising now that he gets to be lead back.
19. Wisconsin
Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin Badgers hope to bounce back from a season riddled with covid issues. Vast majority of the roster back and no Ohio State on the schedule bodes well but three of there first four games are, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. Wisconsin better be ready week one.
18. Oklahoma State
Spencer Sanders returns to helm the offense, the offensive line was beat up for so long and now there has been growth from the replacements. I was never a Chubba guy so doesn't hurt me to see him gone.
17. Penn State
For complete transparency, I would have had to have a serious conversation with James Franklin last year if I am the AD because I would have fired him. Absolutely ZERO juice or emotion or any signs of even caring on the sideline for him last year, it was embarrassing. Do not excuse them because they won the last four games, they went 4-5 I need SERIOUS turn around this off season of they will plummet off this list.
16. Texas
New coach new era. Sam Ehlinger and his "we're back" curse is gone. Steve Sarkisian is a legit play caller, lets see if his second attempt as head coach of a top 10 program goes better this time.
15. Arizona State
Herm Edwards. Gotta believe, leave it on the grass. November 11th for the Pac 12 South title against USC can't wait
14. USC
Mark 10/23 @ Notre Dame on your calendar, after that night is when people start calling this team a national title contender
13. Cincinnati
This is my singular show of respect towards Cincy, don't be shocked when they lose 3-5 games next year.
12. Florida
Florida was torched down the stretch in their last three games of 2020, and if their defense does not get fixed the same will happen this season. Dan Mullen has revamped his coaching staff let us see if it pays off defensively, because I can trust Dan Mullen calling plays for Emory Jones and that offense will rebuild with random guys with insane speed its Florida it happens every year. They have ten "winnable" games it will be up to this team to decide to do so.
11. Notre Dame
Whole new Oline minus Patterson coming back from injury at center, new QB, less than ten returning starters, no ACC bump to strengthen the schedule. This is just Notre Dame back to being same old boring ND. Playing half their games in the ACC but not getting the title game bump hurts.
10. Miami
This is where I go out on a ledge. D'Eriq King is back and assuming his ACL recovery process goes well (updates sounds like it is) I believe Manny Diaz might have this program turned around this fall. I am NOT saying they sniff CFP, their schedule and conference is too tough for that to happen between Alabama week one @UNC week 6 then MAYBE a shot to play Clemson in the ACC title game. Not going to be title contenders, but do not be shocked if you see them in the top 10 by seasons end.
9. Iowa State
Approximately 18 of the 22 starters from last season are returning, more importantly they were able to hold on to Matt Campbell as head coach. This season feels like a potential culmination season for the Cyclones after winning 32 games the past four years they finally broke through and won nine games. They fell short last season losing 21-27 to Oklahoma is this the year they win the Big 12?
8. Texas A&M
Kellen Mond is gone finally, time for Jimbo Fisher to finally put the pieces together and give their best shot at winning the SEC West. If they are ever going to have a shot at it this is the season to do so. If that offense clicks with a new QB and that defense stays stout watch out for the Aggies, remember their only 2020 loss was to the national champions week 2 and they ended the year beating UNC by multiple scores.
7. Oklahoma
Talk about a joke of a schedule. If Oklahoma is not in the CFP this season it will have been their own fault once again. Their BEST out of conference game is week one at Tulane. Spencer Rattler hopefully got on a step stool to swing on some of his lineman that were pitiful this past season and if they improve on both sides of the ball in the trenches this team should walk through the Big12.
6. Oregon
Pac 12 Champs without winning their division then losing to Iowa to finish 4-3 was not exactly how Oregon fans thought their season would go but adding another trophy to the trophy case is never a bad season. Tyler Shough has transferred to Texas Tech replacing him at QB is not the biggest hurdle he was not an amazing fit to begin with but they will have to figure it out quick as they travel to Ohio State week two.
5. Ohio State
Ohio State needs one of their top tier QB recruits to hit big or this could get ugly. The talent on the depth chart is still obviously better than most of the conference but losing half your starters including the QB has carried you and most your offensive line is going to be rough when you have to play Oregon week 2. If I am sadly right about the conference then the rest of their schedule might be pitiful so if they can get past Oregon this might be this years Oklahoma team.
4. Alabama
Alabama lost nearly everybody. QB, RB, WRs, most the OL, and their best players on defense. And once again lost their offensive coordinator, but at this point Nick Saban switches out OCs every other year. How much can they actually reload? Alabama is the only team in the nation capable of reloading this much but I think this is just too much to recover from in one season.
3. North Carolina
Sam Howell might easily be the best QB in the nation returning, and early Heisman front runner. Losing both Javonte Williams will hurt obviously. But Mack Brown has a full OLine back and vast majority of all starters returning.
2. Georgia
If Georgia doesn't win this season they will never win another National Championship again. We now know JT Daniels was obviously head and shoulders the best Georgia QB and was being held back by doctors. While having gigantic holes to fill on the defense, if any staff in America can fix those holes I trust this group to put out another great defense next season.
1. Clemson
Replacing Trevor Lawrence is probably the biggest shoes to fill on this list but we already know DJ Uiagalelei is more than talented to step into the role and ball out. Especially when they are bringing back the VAST majority of their defense and most of their offensive line.
Thank you so much for reading please share with your friends and follow me on twitter @HaroldLStokes
Also be sure to hit subscribe at the top so you do not miss out on any future blogs as CFB and NFL coverage starts to ramp back up!
